Brazil’s burgeoning production amidst greater global demand is expected to propel 2018/19 record exports even higher this month, driven by a record crop. This growth is mainly attributed to production in the states of Mato Grosso and Bahia, which combined accounted for almost 90 percent of 2017/18’s record production. Mato Grosso has witnessed greater production during the second crop (safrina) season (the bulk of harvest is July through September), and Bahia is quickly expanding area amid strong price signals.
November and December 2018 Brazil exports showed record monthly numbers. China was the primary destination as favorable Brazilian prices and high Chinese tariffs on U.S. cotton made Brazil’s Southern Hemisphere crop an attractive alternate. With China’s imports raised to 7.5 million metric tons this month and its domestic stocks the lowest since 2010/11, Brazil is forecast to help meet this shift in demand.
Continued improvement in grading and classification of Brazil’s cotton is also supporting strong interest from overseas buyers. In 2018, the country introduced the Standard Brazil High Volume Inspection (HVI) Program, aiming to better standardize classifications.
Stagnant demand by Brazil’s domestic yarn and textile industry is expected to encourage future shipments amidst record supplies. Expanding arable land and two crops per year support Brazil’s expanded export competitiveness as 2018/19 exports are forecast to be more than a third higher than last year.
