Executive Summary
Highlights from the October 2021 Cotton This Month for the 2021/22 season include:
- World production is estimated at 25.7 million tonnes
- World consumption is estimated at 25.9 million tonnes
- The trade estimate of 10.29 million tonnes shows that the industry outlook remains positive overall
Higher Production and Vigorous Trade Are Expected in the 2021/22 Season
Although world cotton production is expected to increase by 6% in 2021/22, the estimate of 25.7 million tonnes is still lower than it was pre-pandemic. Australia, Brazil and the USA all expect production to increase, which should offset the declines expected in the world’s top two producers, China and India.
Global consumption is estimated at 25.9 million tonnes, and with ending stocks for 2020/21 having been revised downward to 20 million tonnes, world cotton supply is estimated to be 45.8 million tonnes for the 2021/22 season.
The industry saw some of the highest levels of trade ever in 2020/21, and the estimate of 10.29 million tonnes for the coming season shows that industry sentiment remains positive — especially given the robust levels of retail sales of textiles seen in many developed countries.
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2021/22 ranges from 82 cents to 127 cents, with a midpoint at 101.60 cents per pound.
