Australia's cotton harvest will be even bigger than had been thought, lifted by a bigger-than-expected surge in sowings – at the expense of sorghum, plantings of which are rated at a 24-year low.

Abares, the official Australian commodities bureau, lifted by more than 150,000 tonnes, to 1.03m tonnes (4.7m bales) its forecast for the domestic cotton harvest in 2016-17.

Output at that level would be the second highest on record, and up 64% year on year, besides being above estimates from some other commentators, such as the US Department of Agriculture, which pegs the crop at 871,000 tonnes.

Cotlook last week pegged output at 925,000 tonnes.

Abares' revision reflected an increased estimate for plantings, upgraded by 45,000 hectares to 520,000 hectares, up from 270,000 hectares last season, reflecting decent rains and improved profitability prospects from some revival in cotton prices.

Soaring sowings

Sowing are estimated "have almost doubled", the bureau said, flagging a particular increase in seedings of non-irrigated cotton which, as a riskier option, tend to be more sensitive to price expectations, besides water levels.

"Area planted to dryland cotton is estimated to have more than doubled to 150,000 hectares in response to an expected increase in cotton returns relative to production alternatives and favourable planting conditions," Abares said.

For irrigated crops, meanwhile, as of last week "the average storage level of public irrigation dams serving Australia's cotton-growing regions was around 75% of capacity—compared with 31% at the same time in 2015".

'Higher expected returns'

The extra area has come largely at the expense of sorghum, for which seedings are seen tumbling by 31% year on year to 471,000 hectares, the lowest in 24 years.

This forecast, which is well below an estimate made in September for plantings of 631,000 hectares, "reflects higher expected returns from growing cotton."

Abares forecast Australia's grain sorghum output falling by 29% to 1.44m tonnes.