USDA generally relies on data from other countries to estimate their trade flows. In the case of Pakistan, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics of (PBS) provides timely monthly trade data for cotton, textiles and apparel, supplying information on both quantity and value.
In the past, USDA has viewed this data as reliable as it could be corroborated with data from other sources within Pakistan and from trading partners. As such, USDA has used PBS data as the basis for its trade estimates. However, USDA analysts noticed anomalies in PBS data beginning in mid-2015. Specifically, PBS value data for cotton imports began to diverge dramatically from similar data reported by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
For an extended period prior to this, the two data series were quite similar, as shown in the two graphs above. Such small differences as did exist were easily explained by technical differences in the exact stage of trade being measured by PBS and SBP.
But since mid-2015, these small differences have widened significantly, and USDA adopted SBP, rather than PBS, figures. Evaluation of data from other sources, primarily trading partner data, supports the SBP data and reveals inconsistencies with the PBS data.
From marketing year 2014/15, and until such a time as PBS data is more consistent with external sources or a different source is found, USDA estimates for Pakistan’s imports of cotton are based on SBP reported imports rather than the PBS data.
On the other hand, for exports, PBS and SBP data remain entirely consistent and are supported by data from other sources. Given that observed inconsistencies are confined to import data, USDA continues to base export estimates for Pakistan on the PBS export quantity data.
