Howell: Big old-crop export sales help to bolster cotton futures

Howell: Big old-crop export sales help to bolster cotton futures

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Bigger-than-expected U.S. export sales and improved technical considerations helped cotton futures to creep higher as dealings slowed sharply last week.

Benchmark July gained 139 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 92.11 cents, above the midpoint of its entrenched trading band between predominantly 88 and 95 cents. It settled back above its 50-day moving average as its nine-day average crossed above the 18-day average.

July, which completed a bullish outside-range weekly reversal on April 20, climbed to 92.86 cents on Tuesday and finished in the upper third of the 283-point five-day range. December edged up 72 points to settle at 89.03 cents.

Profit-taking by bull spreaders narrowed the July premium to December to support at 200 points before it widened to close at 308 points, up 67 points for the week. The spread had gone from a close at 90 points carry on March 13 to a 343-point inversion on April 18 on perceptions of tightening old-crop accessibility and ample new-crop supplies.

Daily trading volumes dwindled to as low 14,200 lots after topping 54,000 lots the previous week. An abrupt, stunning plunge in MayΆs open interest by first notice day defused the potential for fireworks. Thirty-three notices have been issued.

Cash grower sales jumped on The Seam to 14,237 bales from 4,510 bales the prior week. Prices fell to an average of 80.56 cents from 81.76 cents as loan repayment rates on the turnover fell 150 points to 51.43 cents.

Net U.S. export sales for delivery this season totaled 149,900 running bales during the week ended April 19, snapping a string of three straight weeks of cancellations and lifting 2011-12 commitments to 11.615 million. Commitments are 5 percent above USDAΆs export forecast.

July futures contract traded during the reporting week as low as 86.55 cents, lowest intraday print of the calendar year, and closed that session at 87.25 cents, its lowest settlement since Dec. 23, before rebounding into the recent trading range.

Shipments of 287,200 running bales boosted exports for the season to 7.758 million, about 70 percent of the USDA estimate and 67 percent of commitments. A year ago, shipments totaled about 77 percent of final exports and 71 percent of commitments swelled by unprecedented forward export contracting in late 2010 and early 2011.

An average of roughly 235,700 running bales a week now is needed to reach the USDA estimate, which is 21 percent below 2010-11 exports.

New-crop sales of 56,000 running bales boosted 2012-13 commitments to 1.029 million. With the start of the new marketing year about 14 weeks away, forward commitments have lagged behind average.

On the crop scene, U.S. cotton planting advanced four percentage points during the week ended April 22 to 17 percent completed, five points ahead of last year and four points above the five-year average.

Progress exceeded the average in 10 states, with Texas seven points ahead at 23 percent planted, up from 13 percent a year ago, and Georgia eight points ahead at 12 percent done, up six points from last year.

Operations lagged badly in California at 30 percent planted, against 56 percent last year and 68 percent on average. Some producers were planting forage crops instead of cotton.

With the opening of the traditional optimum cotton planting period of May 5 looming on the Texas High Plains, concerns are mounting about dry soils and an early onset of record high temperatures.

“If it is going to be this hot and dry in April, I am afraid to see what May brings,” commented Brad Heffington of Littlefield. “I keep telling myself it canΆt be as bad as last year but it is starting to look that way.”

The Lamb County producer has recorded 2.9 inches of rain on his farm since July 3, 2010. Historic drought and periods of record heat last year forced producers on the High Plains to abandon 2.87 million acres or an all-time high of 62 percent of the 4.61 million planted acres.

“We need rain, not a shower,” said Heffington, acknowledging that heΆs “getting a little worried now.”

Temperatures soared to all-time April highs on the Plains at midweek, reaching 104 degrees at Lubbock to break the previous high for the month of 100 degrees set in 1925 and tied in 1989. Nearby sites in the Rolling Plains recorded up to 108 degrees.

Precipitation since Jan. 1 totaled 2.17 inches at Lubbock through midweek, up from only 0.84 of an inch last year but 1.34 inches or 62 percent below normal. Amounts in many cases have been small and soil absorption depleted by strong winds. On the international scene, ChinaΆs cotton plantings now are expected to fall 9.4 percent from last year, down from a previously indicated 16.7 percent reduction, according to a new China Cotton Association survey.

The association said some farmers were satisfied after the government announced in early March that it would increase the support price by 3 percent. Most growers had made a planting decision, the CCA said.

The survey of 2,963 growers in the worldΆs largest cotton producing country found 42.4 percent planned cuts, 9.1 percent an increase and 46.4 percent unchanged plantings.

Meanwhile, an array of confusing, contradictory developments and wild price swings with limit moves in both directions in recent weeks have frustrated and whipsawed some traders.

Trend-following funds sold a net 1,061 lots in cotton futures-options combined during the week ended April 17 to reverse to net short 485 lots. The market had posted a false breakout to the downside on April 16 and then quickly rebounded into the prior trading range.

Index funds bought 6,785 lots that reporting week to raise their net longs to 75,391 and small traders sold a net 2,636 lots to reduce theirs to 1,599 lots. Commercials sold 3,087 lots, boosting their net shorts to 76,505 lots.

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