By Duane Howell
For A-J Media

A retreat from near the high for the move swept cotton futures to a 14-session low close last week as traders looked ahead to USDAΆs updated 2015-16 supply-demand estimates and first official 2016-17 forecasts.

Most-active July lost 190 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 61.79 cents, near the low of its broad 312-point trading range and its lowest finish since April 15. July beat a hasty retreat from TuesdayΆs high of 64.65 cents, 10 points shy of the high a week earlier when it printed its highest intraday price since Jan. 4.

December shed 153 points to settle at 61.01 cents, finishing below its 200-day moving average — 61.39 — for the first time since April 19.

Another week of slow U.S. export sales heightened interest in the USDA supply-demand estimates set for release Tuesday.

Net upland export sales for shipment this season of 61,300 running bales during the week ended April 28 rose 26 percent from the prior weekΆs marketing-year low but were down 45 percent from the four-week average. Sales went to 17 countries, led by Brazil, China, Pakistan, Indonesia and Mexico. Gross sales were 114,000 RB and cancellations were 52,700 RB.

Upland shipments of 277,600 RB were up 14 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior four-week average. Shipments went to 25 countries, led by Turkey, Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Bangladesh and Taiwan.

All-cotton commitments of 8.182 million RB trailed cumulative year-ago sales by 2.377 million RB, or 23 percent, while all-cotton shipments of 6.041 million RB lagged exports at the corresponding point last season by 1.653 million RB, or 21 percent.

On the U.S. crop scene, cotton planting increased six percentage points to 16 percent completed during the week ended May 1, a point ahead of a year ago but two points behind the five-year average.

Progress edged up two points to 13 percent planted in Texas, a point ahead of last year but four points behind the average, and increased eight points to 10 percent completed in Georgia, up four points but behind three points, respectively. Planting was ahead of average in eight states, even in Oklahoma and behind in six states.

Relatedly, measurements have shown an average increase of 0.37 of a foot in groundwater levels of the Ogallala Aquifer from 2015 to 2016 within the 16-county area served by the Lubbock-based High Plains Underwater Conservation District.

Above-average rainfall, which fell in a timely manner, helped increase groundwater levels, the district said in a report announcing the results. The average change in 2014-15 was a drop of 0.56 of a foot.

Measurements have shown declines of 9.29 feet for the 10-year 2006-16 district average and 5.94 feet for the five-year 2011-16 average.

Water level measurements were made from December to March in 1,400 privately owned water wells in the Ogallala and in a newly established 24 wells as part of a Dockum Aquifer network.

Irrigated ground accounted for 42 percent of the 3.858 million acres planted in cotton in the larger 34-county region making up the two High Plains crop reporting districts in 2014, the latest year for which complete data is available. This is the nationΆs largest cotton patch.

Ten years earlier, irrigated acres totaled 53 percent of the 3.662 million planted in cotton. Much of the irrigated acreage depends upon supplemental rainfall for optimum yields, but improvements in irrigation technology and varieties have brought big gains in per-acre output.

Commencement of sales from ChinaΆs huge reserves on Tuesday found a strong offtake of the cotton offered at auction and may have aroused concerns about the potential short-term impact on cotton imports.

Sales totaled a reported 30,137 metric tons (138,416 480-pound bales), 99 percent of the offerings. Sales will continue through August, ending prior to the new-crop harvest.

The sales, combined with import restrictions and falling production, are expected to cut ChinaΆs ending stocks by 7 percent this season and 10 percent in 2016-17, says the International Cotton Advisory Committee.

The ICAC projected ChinaΆs ending stocks at 12 million tons (55.12 million 480-pound bales) this season, which would be the first decrease since 2010-11, and 10.9 million tons (50.06 million bales) in 2016-17.

ChinaΆs imports are expected to fall 40 percent this season to 1.1 million tons (5.05 million bales). In 2016-17, imports are forecast to decrease by 13 percent to 940,000 tons (4.32 million bales), limited by the volume required by its World Trade Organization agreement.

World cotton production could increase by 4 percent to 22.96 million tons (105.45 million bales) in 2016-17, ICAC estimated.

Production in India, the worldΆs largest producer, is forecast up 10 percent to 6.5 million tons (29.85 million bales). High production costs in China make cotton less attractive despite high prices, and that crop is forecast down 10 percent to 4.6 million tons (21.13 million bales).

After falling 3 percent in 2015-16, world consumption is projected about steady in 2016-17 at 23.77 million tons (109.17 million bales). Mill use in China, still the worldΆs largest consumer is projected down 5 percent to 7.1 million tons (32.61 million bales) this season and down an additional 5 percent to 6.8 million tons (31.23 million bales) in 2016-17.

The ICAC estimates suggest a world production shortfall of 3.73 million bales in 2016-17, compared with 7.77 million bales in 2015-16.

Meanwhile, trend-following funds boosted their net longs by 19,429 lots to 28,784 in cotton futures-options combined during the week ended April 26, according to government traders-commitments data.

They have built their largest net long position since Jan. 5 since reversing from net short during the week ended April 19. Index funds trimmed their net longs by 2,752 lots to 69,947, while nonreportable traders hiked theirs by 1,296 lots to 4,763.

Commercials raised their net shorts by 17,972 lots to 103,495, adding 13,440 shorts and liquidating 4,532 longs.

DUANE HOWELL is retired farm editor of the Avalanche-Journal. His email address is duane.howell@sbcglobal.net.