By Duane Howell
Slow U.S. planting progress, growing concerns about drought in the big producing area on the Texas High Plains and technically oriented buying contributed to extending gains in cotton futures last week.
Benchmark July gained 100 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 94.20 cents, near the top of its 280-point range to a new four-week high at 94.58 cents.
December hit a new 11-month high at 83.75 cents and closed with a 61-point gain at 83.38 cents. It has gained 702 points, or 9.2 percent, since early February.
Maturing and thin May led the weekly gains, rising 141 points to 94.07 cents after posting the highest continuous close on Tuesday since February 2012 at 94.26 cents. Trading in May ends Wednesday.
May delivery notices have totaled only 85 lots, or 8,500 bales, all stopped by Allenberg Cotton Co. Cert stocks continued to grow, reaching 322,315 bales, largest since July, with 11,713 bales awaiting review.
July posted two new intraday highs in a row since March 31 after USDA reported cotton planting edged up four percentage points during the week ended April 27 to 13 percent complete, even with a year ago but widening by two points to five points behind the five-year average. Progress matched the 10-year low and was seven points behind the 10-year average.
Cotton was 15 percent planted in Texas, up a point from a record slow pace last year but three points behind the five-year average, and 4 percent seeded in Georgia, behind five and seven points, respectively.
The largest lags behind five-year averages included 16 points at 17 percent complete in Louisiana, 13 points at 4 percent in Mississippi, 11 points at 5 percent in Arkansas and seven points at 3 percent in North Carolina and also in Virginia where no cotton had been planted.
Mostly dry conditions through April contributed to worsening drought in the vast majority of the Texas High Plains and in large sections of the Rolling Plains. Lubbock has recorded only 0.90-inch of precipitation since Jan. 1, against 2.27 inches a year ago and a normal of 3.96 inches.
The July contract also has become sensitive to planting delays because of the looming tight carryout. A late crop would be expected to enhance the value of small ending stocks.
Mills and merchants both need the 2014 crop to be on time, Sharon Johnson, senior cotton specialist and introducing broker with KCG Futures in Roswell, Ga., pointed out in a note. And normal harvest progress may be difficult if planting delays continue, she added.
Beginning stocks for the 2014-15 marketing year of 2.5 million bales — if the estimate is maintained for the smallest carryout since 1990 — wouldnΆt leave much margin for error in covering needs prior to volume movement of the new crop.
ThatΆs not a lot of cotton to bridge the gap from the end of the 2013-14 marketing year on July 31 until mid-fall when enough may have been picked or stripped, ginned, baled and made available for shipment to domestic and overseas customers, Johnson said.
In cash trading, grower-to-business sales dipped to 2,176 bales on The Seam from 2,384 bales the previous week. Prices climbed to an average of 81.20 cents from 74.89 cents, reflecting gains to 29.31 cents from 26.03 cents in premiums over loan repayment rates. Daily price averages ranged from 78 to 88.70 cents.
The market showed little reaction to a USDA report showing weak U.S. upland export sales for delivery this season of 31,400 running bales during the week ended April 24, down 75 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior four-week average.
All-cotton sales of 37,600 bales nudged commitments to 9.807 million. Commitments were 94 percent of the USDA estimate, compared with 99 percent of final exports at the correspondent point last season. The gap behind commitments a year ago widened to 2.769 million bales, or 22 percent.
Shipments of upland and Pima combined of 228,400 bales, down about 18 percent from the previous four-week average, boosted the total for the season to 7.965 million bales. Shipments trailed year-ago exports by 1.724 million bales, or also about 18 percent.
Exports reached about 77 percent of the USDA forecast, about the same as the percentage of final shipments a year ago. To achieve the estimate, shipments need to average roughly 185,700 bales a week, while sales averaging around 44,000 bales would match the forecast.
New-crop sales rose to 48,900 bales from 19,700 bales the previous week. This hiked 2014-15 commitments to 1.55 million bales, 93,700 bales ahead of forward bookings a year ago.
Meanwhile, the IntercontinentalExchange plans to launch its new world cotton futures contract in the fourth quarter this year, reports revealed at the annual American Cotton Shippers Association meeting in Miami.
The contract will include cotton grown in the United States, Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Mali. The global contract will trade alongside ICEΆs U.S.-based No. 2 cotton futures contract.
The Atlanta-based exchange previously had planned to list the world contract early this year.
In the current market, hedge fund buying has been pitted against trade selling, with mill fixations from large unpriced old-crop on-call sales offering support on pullbacks.
Trend-following funds bought 5,143 lots in cotton futures-options combined during the week ended April 22 to boost their net longs by 12.7 percent to 45,614 lots, according to government data.
This followed four weeks in which those funds had trimmed net longs. Index funds sold a net 106 lots to nudge their net longs down to 62,519 lots, while traders with non-reportable positions bought 393 lots to hike theirs to 7,234 lots.
Commercials sold 5,429 lots, adding 4,337 shorts and liquidating 1,092 longs to raise their net shorts to 115,367 lots. In futures only, non-commercials increased their net longs by 1.7 percentage points to 31.7 percent of the open interest.