By Duane Howell
For A-J Media

A new batch of USDA supply-demand forecasts showing unchanged U.S. ending stocks and a cut in the world carryout contributed to only small closing changes in cotton futures last week.

December eased down 11 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 61.84 cents, near the low of the weekΆs 130-point trading range — set Tuesday, the day of the USDA report — from 61.61 to 62.91 cents.

December also hit a low of 61.61 cents on Monday, precisely at a 61.8 percent retracement of the rally from the Sept. 24 contract low of 59.70 cents to the Oct. 22 high of 64.69 cents. It bounced off the back-to-back lows, lowest since Oct. 12, to close narrowly ahead both days.

March, where the open interest overtook DecemberΆs for the first time on Nov. 6, managed a three-point gain for the week to close at 62.16 cents. Heavy spread activity featured rolling of index fund longs from December to March.

Cash grower sales declined to 18,663 bales from 22,192 bales on The Seam. Prices averaged 58.03 cents, down from 59.46 cents, reflecting a drop to 10.56 cents from 11.18 cents in premiums over loan repayment rates. Daily price averages ranged between 55.83 and 59.35 cents.

The monthly U.S. balance sheet showed marginally lower production, with ending stocks unchanged at 3.1 million bales, while the world carryout forecast declined 880,000 bales, or 0.8 percent, to 106.09 million.

U.S. all-cotton production is projected at 13.281 million bales, down less than 1 percent from last month and 19 percent from last year.

Production prospects declined 57,000 bales from October as decreases in the Southeast and Delta were mostly offset by increases in the Southwest, including a belated 150,000-bale hike to 5.8 million in Texas.

Upland production is forecast at 12.83 million bales, compared with 12.887 million projected last month and 15.753 million harvested last year. The Pima or extra-long staple crop estimate was carried forward from last month at 451,000 bales, down from 566,400 bales in 2014.

By regions, upland production is estimated at 4.095 million bales in the Southeast, down 170,000 from the October forecast; 2.070 million bales in the Delta states, down 90,000; 6.157 million bales in the Southwest, up 195,000; and 508,000 bales in the West, up 8,000 bales.

Estimated production on the Texas High Plains rose by 50,000 bales from a month ago to 4.03 million, up from 3.261 million last year and 3.67 million bales projected in August.

The USDA also raised the crop forecast in the Rolling Plains by 25,000 bales to 870,000, up from last yearΆs 817,300 bales. The combined 2015-crop total of 4.9 million bales for the High and Rolling Plains is 84 percent of the Texas output and 38 percent of U.S. upland production.

Exports and domestic mill use estimates were unchanged on the month at 10.2 million and 3.7 million bales, respectively.

The USDAΆs projected range for the 2015-16 marketing year average price received by producers was narrowed by a cent on both ends to 55 to 63 cents, with the midpoint unchanged from last month at 59 cents. The 2014-15 average was 61.30 cents.

Globally, USDA reduced production by 1.75 million bales to 105.63 million and cut consumption by 680,000 bales to 111.59 million. Beginning stocks were raised 150,000 bales to 111.94 million. Global imports also gained 150,000 bales to 34.35 million.

World ending stocks are forecast nearly 6 million bales below the beginning level, with ChinaΆs carryout projected down 2.45 million bales from a year earlier to 65.47 million.

The carryout in the rest of the world outside China is projected to decline 3.4 million bales from beginning stocks to 40.62 million, compared with ending stocks of 41.7 million bales foreseen last month.

Weak demand from China has proved a drag on many exporting countriesΆ shipments thus far this marketing year, USDAΆs Foreign Agricultural Service said.

However, the United States thus far has managed to offset lower exports to China with higher shipments to alternative markets in Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, FAS said, even as outstanding sales have remained low, reflecting hand-to-mouth buying by major importers.

Weak demand has been most notable in Australia, which has shipped nearly two-thirds of its exports to China over the previous four seasons. Since the 2015-crop harvest started, AustraliaΆs exports as a share of the crop are at a 10-year low, largely on very weak import demand from China.

Similarly, shipments to nearly all other major markets also are down. To meet the current forecast, AustraliaΆs export pace during its typical out-of-market months from December to April will need to be well above levels of recent years.

Elsewhere, recent reports from Brazil and Turkmenistan have indicated robust sales. Competitively priced, quality cottons remain in demand, especially for export to destinations where mill use remains relatively strong, notably Vietnam and Turkey, FAS said.

On the U.S. crop scene, harvesting again advanced eight percentage points to 58 percent complete during the week ended Nov. 8, behind 60 percent a year ago and 65 percent for the five-year average, USDA said.

Fifty-three percent of the Texas crop was harvested, up from 40 percent a week earlier and a year ago but behind 56 percent for the five-year average. The Georgia harvest edged up only three points to 47 percent complete, behind 72 percent a year ago and 62 percent on average.

Meanwhile, trend-following funds increased their net longs by 1,642 lots to 37,776 in U.S. cotton futures-options combined during the week ended Nov. 3, according to government traders-commitments data.

Those funds covered 2,676 shorts and liquidated 1,034 longs, while index funds reduced their net longs by 1,001 lots to 65,147. Traders with nonreportable positions hiked their net longs by 550 lots to 678.

Commercials boosted their net shorts by 1,190 lots to 103,602, adding 2,673 shorts along with 1,183 longs.