Two-sided trading prevailed as cotton futures crept higher last week, extending the prior weekΆs gains and finishing in the upper reaches of an 11-session consolidation.

Benchmark December eked out a 51-point gain for the week ended Thursday to close at 102.73 cents. It traded from 98.25 to 103.50 cents, testing both ends of its 534-point range since Sept. 22 from 103.55 to 98.21 cents.

Commercial buying continued below 100 cents. Prices fell below that mark on intraday moves nine consecutive sessions before posting rising back-to-back lows above 101 cents at the end of the period.

Trading slowed ahead of USDAΆs updated supply-demand estimates scheduled for release Wednesday. A reduction in the U.S. crop estimate is widely expected.

Cash trading on The SeamΆs grower-to-business exchange slid to 1,175 bales from 2,608 bales the previous week. Prices averaged 92.15 cents, up from 91.08 cents, reflecting premiums over loan redemption rates of 39.75 cents, down from 40.53 cents.

Business-to-business sales fell to 7,933 bales from 11,195 bales as prices advanced 151 points to an average of 94.48 cents and premiums rose 139 points to 42.95 cents.

Better-than-expected U.S. retail sales reports for September garnered attention. Some sales were reported driven by deep discounts. But U.S. comparable chain store retail sales of apparel rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier, the International Council of Shopping Centers reported.

The market showed muted reaction to disappointing net U.S. export sales of 88,500 running bales reported for the week ended Sept. 29, down from 222,700 bales the week before. Gross upland sales were 229,500 bales and cancellations were 140,900 bales.

China booked 150,800 bales of upland, 68 percent of the gross sales, followed by Taiwan, 3,200 bales; Peru, 2,100; and Indonesia, 1,000. These were partially offset by cancellations of 28,100 bales to Turkey, 16,700 to Bangladesh, 6,200 to South Korea and 4,200 to Morocco.

Shipments remained anemic, slipping to 70,200 running bales from 82,600 bales. To achieve the USDA estimate, shipments need to average roughly 250,800 running bales a week.

Larger global production, stiff export competition and smaller U.S. exportable supplies have cut into the U.S. export potential. However, sales to overseas customers still are expected to account for 76 percent of the market offtake of U.S. cotton.

World cotton output is forecast to rise 7 percent from last season, but the U.S. crop is projected to fall about 14 percent, according to the International Cotton Advisory CommitteeΆs updated October estimates.

The ICAC forecast U.S. output at 15.62 million bales, down 940,000 bales from USDAΆs September estimate and down 2.48 million bales from last season. This marked a rare departure from the ICAC secretariatΆs customary practice of accepting or largely adopting the USDA figure for the United States.

Abandonment in Texas and surveys for crop insurance claims suggest that yields will be lower than indicated in USDA reports, ICAC said.

Global output is projected at 122 million bales, down 2 million bales from the ICAC forecast last month but up 8 million bales from last season. Consumption is pegged at 114 million bales, unchanged on the month and up 2 million bales from 2010-11.

The secretariat estimate of mill use is based on the latest monthly data on consumption or imports combined with International Monetary Fund forecasts of world economic growth. World trade remains projected at 37 million bales, up 2 million bales from last season.

Projected world ending stocks fell 2 million bales on the month to 50 million, up 9 million bales from a year earlier. The ratio of world ending stocks outside China to world use outside China — an indicator of direction of change in world prices — is expected to climb to 52 from 46.

Volatility in cotton prices was the highest in decades during 2010-11, ICAC said. Cotton was the most volatile of 53 commodities tracked by the IMF last year.

On the U.S. crop scene, boll opening advanced eight percentage points to 84 percent during the week ended Oct. 2, USDA reported. Open cotton was two points behind a year ago but nine points ahead of average.

Spurred by heat and drought, cotton in Texas reached 80 percent open, a whopping 15 points over the five-year average. This was by far the widest margin over the average of any state.

Harvesting expanded only three points to 16 percent done, seven points behind a year ago and two points behind average. The harvest was most advanced in Louisiana at 80 percent and Mississippi at 27 percent, 38 points and 11 points, respectively, ahead of average. Texas had harvested 18 percent, two points ahead of 2010 but a point behind average.

Crop conditions showed slight improvement, with good to excellent steady at 29 percent, fair up two points at 29 percent and poor to very poor down two points at 42 percent. The Texas crop was rated 13 percent good, unchanged; 26 percent fair, up a point; and 61 percent poor to very poor, down a point.

Ratings nationally remain the worst on record for this time of year. The prior high for poor to very poor was 35 percent in 1998.

Meanwhile, trend-following funds sold a net 10,041 lots in cotton futures with options during the week ended Sept. 27 to cut their net longs to 16,895 lots, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

This was the largest net selling by those funds since the week ended Nov. 16 and reduced their net long position to the smallest since Sept. 8, 2009, when it was 15,470. Index funds sold a net 2,370 lots to cut their net longs to 48,287 lots and traders with non-reportable positions sold a net 4,720 lots to flip to net short 276 lots.

Commercials bought a net 17,131 lots, covering 8,756 shorts and adding 8,375 longs, which slashed their net short position to 64,905 lots.