Howell: Cotton futures post slight gains after again falling to new low

Howell: Cotton futures post slight gains after again falling to new low

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Choppy cotton futures have hit a new low for the year for a second week, rallied to a six-session high and consolidated around the middle of the weekΆs trading span.

The key March delivery edged up 43 points for the week through Thursday, closing at 91.30 cents to settle just above the midpoint of a 517-point range from 88.50 cents to 93.67 cents. March lost 9.8 percent of its value in November.

March hit the weekΆs high on Wednesday as equities and commodities soared and the dollar index plunged after the central banks of the United States, euro zone, Japan, Canada, Britain and Switzerland announced coordinated actions to provide liquidity to the financial system.

And the central bank in China, the worldΆs largest raw cotton consumer and importer, unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio for commercial lenders for the first time in nearly three years to ease credit strains and shore up an economy running at its weakest pace since 2009.

But cotton, which had reversed from the new low to close ahead on Tuesday, couldnΆt maintain the early follow-through on Wednesday and finished that day in the red. Then it closed with slight gains on Thursday even as commodities fell broadly as attention reverted to EuropeΆs slowing growth and sluggish factory activity in China.

A strong cash basis in the Southeast and West Texas and technical action — the price reversal up on Tuesday signaled at least a temporary low and possibly a major low — had helped to fuel the recovery bounce. But slow current demand and concerns about potential sales cancellations contributed to keeping the advance in check.

It remains to be seen, one analyst said, whether there is any lasting boost to trader and consumer sentiment from the central bank actions given lingering uncertainty over the health of several European Union sovereign states. The joint actions underscored the severity of the challenges facing many top economies, which of course affect cotton demand.

Cash grower-to-business trading jumped to a crop year high of 33,783 bales on The Seam, against 7,635 bales the previous week. Prices gained 564 points to an average of 90.71 cents. Loan repayment rates on the turnover rose 166 points to an average of 54.69 cents.

Modest net U.S. weekly export sales of 85,000 running bales of upland for delivery this season, reflecting gross sales of 120,900 bales and cancellations of 35,900 bales, brought all-cotton commitments to 10.104 million. China bought 77 percent of the weekly sales and has booked 53 percent of the seasonΆs commitments.

An additional 1.283 million running bales of optional origin commitments can be made up of either U.S. cotton or foreign growths. Mills, fearful of running out of cotton, already had pushed U.S. sales to record high carry-in bookings when the marketing year began.

Shipments have continued to lag, reaching a total for the season of 1.786 million running bales or 16 percent of the estimate.

Aside from ChinaΆs buying, mainly for rebuilding reserves and not for consumption, U.S. export business has been meager for weeks. China booked 2.381 million running bales of upland cotton in the three previous reporting weeks, while only 33,000 bales were sold to other destinations.

Yet commitments now have reached 92 percent of the USDA forecast for the marketing year ending July 31.

Analysts say USDA may be compelled to boost the export estimate, resulting in a drawdown in ending stocks even if the production forecast is unchanged. A reduction in the crop estimate, as many expect, would cut the carryout further.

On the U.S. crop scene, cotton harvesting advanced eight percentage points to 92 percent done during the week ended Nov. 27, USDA said, up two points from a year ago and 10 points from the five-year average.

The harvest moved at an 11-point clip in Texas to reach 93 percent completed and at a six-point pace in Georgia to 85 percent done. It was 18 points ahead of the average in Texas and four points ahead in Georgia.

Harvesting neared completion in many other areas of the Southeast and was complete or within a point or two of completion in the Mid-South. In the Far West, about 33 percent remained on the stalk in Arizona and about 6 percent in California.

Looking ahead, early rumblings have indicated producers plan on switching from corn to cotton when spring planting time arrives on the Texas High Plains. However, crop specialists say at least 10 to 15 inches of precipitation are needed to replenish subsoil moisture in the drought-stricken region.

If no significant moisture is received, many fields — including some that have been irrigated in previous years — still will be planted as dryland cotton, reports have indicated, with no plans for pre-watering.

The High Plains accounted for 61 percent of the planted cotton area in Texas this year and 31 percent of the U.S. all-cotton plantings but suffered an all-time high abandonment of 2.77 million acres or 60 percent.

And losses have mounted since the last district estimates in October.

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