By Duane Howell

Forecasts for harvest-delaying tropical rains to douse open bolls in parts of the Delta and much of the Southeast have helped to boost cotton futures to a new six-week high.

Benchmark December gained 197 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 87.44 cents, its highest finish since Aug. 20. It settled just off the weekΆs high of 87.78 cents, near a 50 percent retracement (87.92) of the move from the Aug. 16 high of 93.72 to the Sept. 5 low of 82.11.

March advanced 217 points to settle at 87.37 cents. Open interest coming into ThursdayΆs session jumped 20,580 lots from a week earlier to 205,751. This was attributed largely to a buildup of speculative longs.

Worries that a lengthy U.S. government shutdown could become intertwined with the looming battle over raising the borrowing limit, slow economic growth and hurt demand for cotton helped to cap the rally.

Cash grower-to-business sales slowed to 1,150 bales on The Seam from 2,764 bales the prior week. Prices eased 25 points to an average of 79.09 cents, reflecting a 17-point dip to 28.26 cents in premiums over loan repayment rates. Daily price averages ranged from 74.96 to 82.14 cents.

Traders monitored Tropical Storm Karen, expected to lash the northern Gulf Coast over the weekend. Karen was expected to bring heavy rains on a northeasterly trek through cotton areas of the southeastern states.

A dry cold front headed for the Texas High Plains also drew attention. Temperatures were expected to fall into the high 30s after near-record highs in the middle 90s at Lubbock facilitated boll development earlier in the week.

The market had to cope with disruption of government operations and price-discovery information resulting from the budget stalemate in Washington. Pricing information from USDA and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been severely restricted.

Emergency IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE) action would authorize the use on futures deliveries of the latest USDA data on commercial premiums and discounts if current cash market data isnΆt available.

The action, taken because the government shutdown has made unavailable daily USDA data on cash prices, would apply specifically to the October contract but also provides a method for calculating exchange premiums and discounts in any absence of such data in the future. The October contract — only one contract remained open — expires Wednesday.

The USDAΆs weekly export sales-shipment report and the CFTCΆs on-call cotton data also were early casualties of the shutdown.

Cotton classing operations, funded through user fees, are continuing, but the statistical data on quality and quantity wonΆt be available on the Agricultural Marketing ServiceΆs website.

Loan operations of USDAΆs Commodity Credit Corp. have ceased. While this may have little short-term impact, it could be disruptive over time, especially as the slow harvest pace begins to gain momentum. A prolonged shutdown could stretch the credit limits of producers, merchants and marketing cooperatives and raise near-term market supplies.

It was uncertain if USDA would be able to release its widely watched monthly crop forecasts and updated supply-demand estimates as scheduled on Friday, Oct. 11.

The Farm Service Agency has closed, including county offices, and the Federal Crop Insurance Corp. is shuttered. Most activities of the Natural Resources Conservation Service also have ceased.

On the crop scene, U.S. conditions slipped during the week ended Sept. 29, USDA reported before the shutdown, with good to excellent down two percentage points to 42 percent, fair up a point to 34 percent and poor to very poor also up a point to 24 percent.

The DTN cotton condition index declined to 92 from 97 a week earlier but was up from 78 a year ago.

Conditions dipped in Texas, with good-excellent down two points to 30 percent and poor-very poor up a point to 34 percent, and also in Georgia, with good-excellent down five points to 43 percent and poor-very poor up a point to 17 percent.

Ratings also declined in Kansas, the Carolinas, Oklahoma and Virginia, improved in Louisiana and Mississippi and held steady elsewhere.

Harvesting crept up two points to 7 percent completed, six points behind last year and seven points behind the five-year average, while boll opening advanced 12 points to 59 percent, behind 77 percent and 71 percent, respectively. The Texas harvest edged up a point to 11 percent done, behind 15 percent a year ago and 16 percent on average.

Contrary to earlier concerns about possible damage to IndiaΆs crop from excessive rains, the output in the worldΆs second-largest cotton producer may match or exceed earlier estimates at a new record high.

Private estimates of the 2013-14 output are reported to range in 170-kilo bales mostly from 37 million to 40 million (28.91 million to 31.25 million 480-pound bales). The USDA last month estimated the crop at a record 29 million bales, up from 26.5 million in 2012-13.

IndiaΆs Cotton Advisory Board is scheduled to meet Thursday, Oct. 10, and will release new supply-demand estimates.

Improved crop prospects in India were largely behind the million-bale September increase to 117.4 million bales in USDAΆs world crop estimate, down 3 percent from 2012-13 and 6 percent below the 2011-12 record.

In other international news, China bought a weekly total of 51,420 metric tons (236,168 statistical bales) of domestic cotton ahead of a weeklong mid-autumn national holiday that began Oct. 1. China began the third year of its controversial stockpiling program last month.

Talk resurfaced that China may resume sales from the reserves later this month. ChinaΆs ending stocks are expected to account for 62 percent of the record high world carryout at the end of this season.

Looking to early next year, ICE plans to launch the first global cotton futures contract, the Atlanta-based exchange said. It will be listed alongside the existing U.S. cotton contract.