Howell: Cotton loses ground amid positioning ahead of new estimates

Howell: Cotton loses ground amid positioning ahead of new estimates

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Giving ground slowly, cotton futures fell to a 19-week low in some heavy dealings last week amid ongoing burdensome supply prospects and growing worries about the U.S. “fiscal cliff” and European debt crisis.

Spot December, which lost its open interest leadership to March, dropped 95 points during the week ended Thursday to close at 69.26 cents, its lowest settlement since June 27. March shed 116 points to settle at 70.34 cents.

Since hitting a five-month high at 79.19 cents on Oct. 18, December has managed to exceed the prior-session intraday high only twice, on Oct. 30 and again Tuesday, and it reversed to finish in the red both times.

Futures trading surged to as much as 55,600 lots a day and daily options volume to 14,100 lots. Index funds continued rolling longs from December, selling December and buying March and beyond, while some hedge funds were thought to have remained in a long liquidation mode.

Friday was the last trading day for December options and first notice day for December deliveries is Nov. 26. Daily trading limits will be removed when the notice period begins only nine business days from Friday and traders intending to make or take delivery then will be virtually the only ones left in December.

Open interest going into ThursdayΆs session had fallen 16,501 lots from a week earlier to 84,339 in December and expanded 8,237 lots to 87,835 in March. Certified stocks in deliverable position grew 3,765 bales to 15,368 and 11,545 bales awaited review.

Cash grower-to-business sales increased to a marketing year high of 24,298 bales on The Seam, up from 15,817 bales the previous week. Prices dipped 40 points to an average of 65.55 cents as premiums over loan repayment rates slipped 82 points to 12.36 cents. Daily average prices ranged from 64.07 to 66.97 cents.

Futures traders tweaked positions ahead of updated supply-demand estimates from USDA, which were scheduled for release on Friday, as weakness in U.S. stock markets roused new concerns about demand for cotton products in the worldΆs largest economy. However, cotton fared relatively well compared with sharp losses in equities.

With uncertainties about the presidential and congressional elections lifted, traders focused attention on the fiscal cliff and more than $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases that will kick in next year and possibly derail the economic recovery if Washington is unable to reach a timely compromise.

Fears about EuropeΆs economy persisted after the European Commission said the euro zone will grow only 0.1% in 2013 but pick up in 2014.

The futures market shrugged off strong U.S. net all-cotton export sales of 270,800 running bales for delivery this season during the week ended Nov. 1. These sales, up from the prior weekΆs 99,700 bales, were the second largest of the marketing year, behind only 338,400 bales during the week ended Sept. 6.

Upland net sales of 266,000 running bales included 126,300 bales or 47 percent to China, 64,900 bales to Turkey, 30,600 to Pakistan, 12,100 to Vietnam and 7,700 to Taiwan. Gross upland sales were 271,700 bales and cancellations were 5,700 bales.

All-cotton commitments climbed to 6.358 million running bales, 57 percent of the USDA forecast, against 76 percent of final shipments at the corresponding point last season when there was a big rollover of unshipped sales from the previous crop year.

Weekly all-cotton shipments of 128,500 running bales, with upland exports of 115,100 bales rising 4 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior four-week average, boosted the total for the season to 2.037 million, up 741,200 bales from a year ago.

Cumulative shipments were 18 percent of the USDA export forecast and 32 percent of the commitments. A year ago, shipments totaled 11 percent of the final total and 15 percent of the commitments.

To achieve the forecast, all-cotton shipments need to average roughly 242,500 running bales a week.

With U.S. cotton competitively priced and the amount meeting desirable specifications growing, some analysts have expected a quickening of both export sales and shipments.

On the U.S. crop scene, harvesting advanced 14 percentage points, fastest of the season, to 64 percent complete during the week ended Nov. 4. This was four points behind a year ago but six points ahead of the five-year average. With only a little over a third of the crop left on the stalk, conditions ratings have been discontinued.

Quality has continued to improve. Of the 1,419,806 running bales of upland classed for the week ended Nov. 1 and the 5,818,492 bales graded for the season, tenderable cotton accounted for 58.9 percent and 52.2 percent, respectively. A year ago, 65.3 percent of 6.469 million upland bales classed for the season met tenderable requirements.

Separately, USDA data showed upland growers had booked about 14 percent of their expected acreage by Nov. 1, down from 38 percent a year ago and 19 percent in 2010. Contracting included 17 percent in the Southeast, 33 percent in the Mid-South and 5 percent in both the Southwest and Far West.

The estimates are based on the National Agricultural Statistics ServiceΆs October report on acres for harvest and informal surveys by the cotton division of the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Meanwhile, updated November estimates of the International Cotton Advisory Committee continued to show a bleak general outlook for global cotton supply and use for 2012-13.

Global production and mill use are forecast at 25.88 million metric tons (118.87 million 480-pound bales) and 23.44 million tons (107.66 million bales), respectively. This results in a projected oversupply of 2.44 million tons (11.21 million bales).

The ICAC raised its production estimate by the equivalent of 1.84 million bales from a month ago and cut consumption by 500,000 bales, raising the oversupply forecast by 2.34 million bales.

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