Howell: Cotton market continues to lose ground amid demand concerns

Howell: Cotton market continues to lose ground amid demand concerns

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Demand concerns and technical weakness continued to weigh on cotton futures last week ahead of USDAΆs key U.S. planted acreage report.

Most-active December lost 148 points during the week ended Thursday to close at 83.88 cents, having posted lower intraday highs nine sessions in a row. It came into the calendar week having closed below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages.

December fell to 83.05 cents on Tuesday, the lowest intraday price since June 3 when it hit the monthΆs low at 81.72 cents, and bounced before closing Thursday 568 points below the June 14 high.

Maturing July shed 179 points to settle at 83.13 cents, finishing at a 75-point discount to December after trading at premiums during the week as wide as 120 points. Its last trading day is July 9. JulyΆs open interest was about 2,600 lots after ThursdayΆs notices of 221.

Delivery notices had totaled 1,426 lots and appeared to be moving into the hands of an international trade house. Certified stocks have continued to grow, rising 45,446 bales for the week to 596,374, with 43,926 bales awaiting review.

Thinly traded October moved independently to a 21-point gain for the week to close at 86.13 cents. The gain may have been partly related to small prospects in the early South Texas crop and a tight supply expected before new-crop cotton begins to move in volume.

Upward revisions from the March intentions were expected in the planted acreage report, scheduled for release on Friday, June 28.

A Commerce Department report showing the economy grew at slower-than-expected 1.8 percent in the first quarter and worries about a slowing economy and possible credit crunch in China contributed to demand worries for cotton.

The USDAΆs export sales report for the week ended June 20 didnΆt help. Net old-crop weekly export sales of all cotton for shipment this season of 68,200 running bales were down from 71,000 bales the previous week and the lowest since last October, while new-crop upland sales data reflected net cancellations of 7,100 bales.

Commitments for the marketing year ending July 31 reached 13.432 million running bales, up 945,600 bales from bookings a year ago and almost 102 percent of the USDA export forecast. A year ago, commitments were about 110 percent of final shipments.

All-cotton shipments of 149,300 running bales — slowest since November — brought exports for the season to 11.811 million, up 1.641 million bales from a year ago.

Shipments are nearly 90 percent of the forecast, about the same as the percentage of final shipments at the corresponding point last season. Exports now need to average roughly 276,200 running bales a week to make the estimate.

Net all-cotton cancellations for 2013-14 of 6,900 running bales left new-crop commitments at 1.996 million, 454,000 bales behind forward sales a year ago. These are almost 19 percent of the USDA projection.

U.S. crop ratings offered mild support and may have contributed to TuesdayΆs bounce. Conditions slipped slightly during the week ended June 23, according to USDAΆs weekly crop update. Most expectations had been for some improvement.

Cotton in good to excellent condition increased a percentage point to 43 percent, but crops considered poor to very poor rose by four points to 23 percent. Fair declined five points to 34 percent. A year ago, ratings showed good-excellent at 50 percent and poor-very poor at 16 percent.

Ratings improved in Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina and Tennessee; held steady in Arkansas, California and Louisiana; and dipped in Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas and Virginia.

The decline in top-producing Texas appeared generally unexpected after widespread rain across much of the state. However, hail, strong winds and blowing dust accompanied the thunderstorms in the Plains. Areas of South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley got little or no rain.

Good-excellent cotton in Texas improved a point to 25 percent, but poor-very poor increased six points to 37 percent. Fair dropped seven points to 38 percent. TexasΆ upland March intentions totaled 55 percent of the prospective U.S. all-cotton plantings.

Squaring nationally advanced 13 points to 23 percent, behind 34 percent a year ago and 29 percent for the five-year average.

Highly variable rainfall within relatively confined areas combined with hail, strong winds and blowing dust this month have compounded the always difficult — and always widely talked — assessment of crop conditions and standing acreage in the Texas High and Rolling Plains heading into early summer.

Rainfall amounts for June recorded by Texas TechΆs West Texas Mesonet had ranged through early in the week from 0.89 of an inch at Saint Lawrence in Glasscock County and 0.93-inch at Friona in Parmer County to 5.72 inches at Quitaque in Briscoe County and 5.36 inches at Anton in Hockley County.

Lubbock had registered 1.15 inches, according to the National Weather Service, down from 1.6 inches last year and 54 percent below the normal of 2.51 inches. Since Jan. 1, Lubbock had received 4.57 inches, down from 5.25 inches a year ago and 48 percent below the normal of 8.72 inches.

Meanwhile, trend-following funds bought 17,351 lots in futures-options combined during the week ended June 18 to boost their net longs by a bulging 38 percent to 62,653 lots, according to traders-commitments data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The week encompassed the expiration of July options. Index funds sold 474 lots to trim their net longs to 70,404 lots, while traders with non-reportable positions bought a net 1,484 lots to boost theirs to 8,451.

Commercials sold a net 18,359 lots, liquidating 32,571 longs and covering 14,212 shorts to raise their net shorts to 141,506 lots. In futures only, non-commercials boosted their net longs by 12 percentage points to 38.1 percent of the declining open interest.

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