Howell: Cotton market nears recent highs as storm drenches open bolls

Howell: Cotton market nears recent highs as storm drenches open bolls

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Consolidative trading prevailed last week as cotton futures bumped against recent highs amid uncertainties about the quality and quantity of some of the multi-state Delta crop in the wake of Hurricane Isaac.

Benchmark December eked out a 14-point gain for the week ended Thursday to settle at 76.94 cents, just 36 points from its highest close since mid-May on Aug. 21. March gained 35 points to 77.73 cents.

Cash grower-to-business sales fell to 4,676 bales from 9,417 bales the prior week on The Seam. Prices managed to gain six points to average 71.13 cents, with premiums over loan repayment rates also little changed at 18.14 cents. Daily price averages ranged from 68.07 to 73.03 cents.

Storm jitters helped keep futures sellers at bay in light dealings as Isaac approached and made landfall in southeast Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane on Tuesday. Isaac was downgraded to a tropical storm Wednesday afternoon, drenching open cotton.

A shift to the northwest lessened the amount of the most vulnerable cotton directly in IsaacΆs path.

Producers in the states most affected were expecting above-average yields. Cotton was 61 percent open in LouisianaΆs estimated 400,000-bale crop and 55 percent in MississippiΆs projected 1.1 million bales.

U.S. crop conditions improved during the week ended Aug. 26, USDA said, with good to excellent up two percentage points 43 percent, fair steady at 29 percent and poor to very poor down two points to 28 percent.

This snapped a string of four straight weeks of decline. Cotton rated good to excellent was nine points below the 10-year average.

Good-excellent cotton in Texas gained a point to 23 percent, fair rose two points to 34 percent and poor-very poor fell three points to 23 percent. Rainfall and cooler temperatures aided dryland cotton in the High Plains.

Conditions also improved in Georgia, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and North Carolina and declined in Alabama and California.

Cotton setting bolls nationally advanced three points to 96 percent and boll opening also expanded three points to 24 percent, up from five-year averages of 92 percent and 21 percent, respectively.

The market showed muted reaction to data showing U.S. weekly export sales for shipment this season edged to 97,200 bales from 87,900 bales previous week. Shipments were 167,500 bales, up from 145,100.

News that China will offer a first batch of 200,000 to 300,000 metric tons at an auction floor price of $2,917 per ton pressured the market to the period low at 74.72 cents, basis December. But the announcement wasnΆt a total surprise.

Talk of an impending sale after Sept. 1 had circulated for weeks, with considerable speculation about the initial amount and the floor price.

China earlier issued an additional processing trade import quota of 1.84 million bales under which mills must export products made from the imported cotton. The government limits millsΆ access to cheaper global supplies through import quotas as part of its efforts to protect farmersΆ profit margins.

Stockpiling from the new crop is to begin in mid-September. The government will pay farmers 20,400 per ton or the equivalent of 145 cents per pound for new-crop cotton, up more than 3 percent from the previous year.

If the five-day average market price is below 145 cents, an analyst explained, growers can sell cotton to the state at the procurement price.

ChinaΆs crop may fall 4.2 percent from last year to 6.97 million tons, the China Cotton Association said. This would mean bumper yields, with the planted area estimated down 10 percent. Inclement weather was expected to cause harvest delays in some regions.

The USDA forecast of ChinaΆs crop is 31 million bales, 7.5 percent below its estimate of 33.5 million produced in 2011-12. A record yield was projected to help stabilize ChinaΆs production.

Meanwhile, trend following funds bought 6,309 lots in futures with options during the week ended Aug. 21 to more than double their net long position to 12,333 lots, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

This was their largest net long holdings since Jan. 31. Index funds sold a net 280 lots to nudge their net longs down to 65,576, while small traders with non-reportable positions bought a net 1,633 lots to raise theirs to 2,594 lots.

Commercials sold 7,662 lots to raise their net shorts by about 11 percent to 80,503 lots. They liquidated 5,037 longs and added 2,625 shorts.

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