By Duane Howell
For the Avalanche-Journal

Trapped between scale-down trade buying and light overhead selling, cotton futures have rambled quietly to a virtual weekly standstill.

Benchmark December edged up 29 points in light trading to close the week ended Thursday at 60.60 cents. The rally high at midweek (61.57) stalled eight points shy of the 18-day moving average and the low (59.78) held eight points above the contract low.

December closed September with losses of 256 points, or 4.1 percent, for the month and 707 points, or 11 percent, for the quarter.

Cash grower sales rose for the week to 3,255 bales from 1,379 bales on The Seam. Daily average prices ranged from 50.95 to 55.62 cents, reflecting premiums over loan repayment rates of 6.56 to 11.44 cents.

Traders kept close watch on the path of Hurricane Joaquin, which was expected to near the East Coast along North Carolina and Virginia Sunday or Monday. The storm could dump heavy rains on a lot of open cotton, including some areas where drenching rains already have fallen.

A European computer model, contrary to others, predicted Joaquin could veer to the east and push out to sea.

On the demand front, U.S. weekly export sales for shipment this season of 121,900 running bales brought 2015-16 commitments to 3.2 million bales, widening the gap behind year-ago bookings by 107,000 bales to 2.346 million. Commitments were 32 percent of the USDA export forecast, compared with 51 percent of final 2014-15 exports a year ago.

Shipments slowed to 76,700 bales, but the lead over cumulative year-ago exports narrowed by only 2,700 bales to 122,200. Exports for the season reached 901,200 bales, up from 779,000 a year ago. These were 9 percent of the USDA projection, against 7 percent of the total last year.

To achieve the USDA forecast, shipments need to average roughly 199,800 running bales per week, while sales averaging around 148,800 bales would match the export projection.

On the international scene, India, forecast to surpass China as the worldΆs largest cotton producer in 2015-16, is projected to harvest 37.7 million bales of 170 kilograms, according to new estimates by the Cotton Association of India.

This converts to 29.45 million 480-pound net weight bales, compared with USDAΆs September forecast of 29 million bales. The USDA estimated IndiaΆs 2014-15 output at 29.5 million bales.

IndiaΆs ascension to the worldΆs leading producer results largely from having the largest cotton area, according to USDA. Harvested area in India is estimated at nearly 38 percent of the global total in 2015-16 and is more than three times that of either China or the United States.

Yields in India remain well below the world average. Yet USDAΆs estimate of IndiaΆs production is 27 percent of the global crop.

India surpassed the United States in cotton production in 2006-07 and is poised this season to overtake ChinaΆs 26-million bale crop, which is down from 30 million bales in 2014-15.

U.S. House Agriculture Committee members from the Cotton Belt, led by Chairman Mike Conaway of Midland, have discussed with Trade Representative Michael Froman concerns about World Trade Organization talks leading up to a ministerial meeting in December.

They emphasized that reforms already have been made in U.S. cotton policy and that no further changes or concessions should be considered. The congressmen urged the ambassador to keep the WTO focus on cotton policies in China and India and the impact on the global cotton market.

In related activities, U.S. representatives to the WTO in Geneva have questioned IndiaΆs increase in the cotton minimum support price for 2015 and emphasized the need to prevent the release of its cotton stocks from further depressing global cotton prices.

Those representatives also have noted ChinaΆs nearly $6 billion in cotton subsides and its huge cotton stockpile, estimated by USDA at 61 percent of 2015-16 world stocks.

On the U.S. crop scene, cotton conditions slipped as boll opening moved ahead of the year-ago pace for the first time this season and harvesting nearly caught up with the 2014 progress, according to USDA.

Cotton rated good to excellent dipped two percentage points to 50, fair rose a point to 37 percent and poor to very poor also increased a point to 13 percent. A year ago, good-excellent was 49 percent, fair 33 percent and poor-very poor 18 percent. The DTN cotton condition index declined four points to 131, down from 119 a year ago.

The Texas crop lost ground, with good-excellent down three points to 38 percent, fair up two points to 44 percent and poor-very poor up a point to 18 percent.

Boll opening beltwide rose by 12 points to 69 percent, up 6 points from a year ago and a point behind the five-year average. Harvesting advanced four points to 11 percent completed, compared with 10 percent last year and 12 percent on average.

Sixty percent was open in Texas, up 10 points from a year ago and only two points behind the five-year average, while 16 percent was harvested, down a point and up a point, respectively.

Meanwhile, in futures-options combined, trend-following funds chopped their net longs by 15,866 lots, or by 54.8 percent, during the week ended Sept. 22, according to government traders-commitments data.

They added 10,993 shorts and liquidated 4,873 longs to cut their net longs to 11,278 lots, smallest since Feb. 3. Prices set three new contract lows in a row that week and futures-options open interest rose by 10,561 lots to 233,798.

Index funds shaved their net longs by 475 lots to 66,428, while traders with nonreportable positions boosted their net shorts by 3,308 lots to 3,661.

Commercials slashed their net shorts by 19,650 lots to 74,046, covering 9,860 shorts and adding 9,790 longs. This was their smallest net short position since March 17.

In futures only, non-commercials cut their net longs by 8.1 percentage points to 14.1 percent of the rising open interest.