Howell: Cotton rallies on heels of big cancellations of export sales

Howell: Cotton rallies on heels of big cancellations of export sales

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Cotton futures drifted mostly sideways last week, taking a breather on the heels of wild swings the previous week.

Benchmark December managed a 39-point gain from the prior calendar weekΆs finish to close Thursday at 69.51 cents, while March eked out a 13-point gain to 70.70 cents. Maturing July shed 387 points on the board close at 70.30 cents. It entered the week having plunged limit down three sessions in a row after surging limit up two consecutive sessions.

Cash trading dwindled to 268 bales from 5,215 bales on The SeamΆs grower-to-business exchange. Prices fell to an average of 53.34 cents from 76.77 cents. Daily averages ranged from 52.10 to 57 cents.

The market rallied from the weekΆs lows hit on news of big — but not particularly unexpected — U.S. all-cotton export sales cancellations for this season of 599,300 running bales during the week ended June 21. The cancellations followed sales of 799,500 bales reported two weeks earlier.

The July contract had commanded an extremely rare board premium to world prices during the week in which the cancellations were reported. It had traded as high as a theoretical 90 cents via the July-December spread while locked up the limit following the huge sales report, then collapsed that same week to a synthetic low around 68 cents while locked limit down.

China canceled 603,700 bales of upland during the latest reporting week after purchasing a reported 744,200 bales in the week ended June 7.

All-cotton 2011-12 commitments have fallen to 10.170 million running bales, now 11 percent above the USDA forecast. The margin over the estimate narrowed in statistical bales to 1.26 million.

Shipments of 197,600 running bales boosted exports for the season to 10.17 million. This is 90 percent of the USDA projection, against 94 percent of final exports at the corresponding point last season. To achieve the estimate, shipments need to average roughly 216,300 running bales a week.

Commitments for the 2012-13 marketing year beginning Aug. 1 climbed to 2.45 million running bales on net sales of 87,900 bales, down from 472,000 the previous week. New-crop bookings stand at 21 percent of the USDA export projection for next season, against a record high 50 percent of the current 2011-12 export estimate in forward sales a year ago.

Traders jockeyed for position ahead of the U.S. planted acreage report, scheduled for release on Friday. Short-covering ahead of the report helped to lift futures from the periodΆs low of 67.16 cents, basis December, just below the previous weekΆs low of 67.38 cents.

The report was to update the March intentions of 13.155 million acres, down 1.58 million from last yearΆs plantings. A variety of factors — especially price considerations against other acreage-competing crops — was expected to result in an additional reduction.

Deteriorating U.S. crop conditions offered futures support along with a late monsoon in India, the worldΆs second-largest cotton producer, and reports of less-than-ideal conditions in China, the largest producer. But massive world stock estimates kept a lid on rallies.

U.S. cotton rated good to excellent fell three percentage points to 50 percent during the week ended June 24, USDA reported, with fair up two points to 34 percent and poor to very poor up a point to 16 percent.

This was the fourth consecutive week of decline. Still, the good to excellent cotton was a point above the 10-year average.

Squaring advanced nine points to 36 percent, up seven points from last year and four points from the five-year average, while boll-setting progressed three points to 8 percent, against 7 percent on that average.

Crop ratings improved in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Kansas and Tennessee, held steady in Mississippi and declined in the other states.

Good to excellent cotton in top-producing Texas declined three points to 36 percent, fair rose three points to 40 percent and poor-very poor held at 24 percent. Cotton rated good to excellent in Georgia fell to 61 percent from 70 percent.

Scorching heat and dryness in the Texas High and Rolling Plains generated expectations for another decline in the next report.

Separately, USDA reported that outstanding all-cotton loans on 2011-crop cotton declined 94,307 bales to 1,194,183 during the week ended June 19. Loans outstanding included 990,957 bales of Form G loans issued to marketing cooperatives or loan servicing agents and 203,226 bales of Form A loans issued to individual growers.

Repayments on 93,286 bales of upland cotton reduced those loans outstanding to 1,077,055 bales. The deadline for entering 2011-crop cotton into the loan expired May 31.

In international news, PakistanΆs crop likely will be delayed by about four weeks owing to unfavorable weather earlier this year, Dow Jones reported, quoting the chairman of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association.

Plantings were estimated to have fallen 15.4 percent from last yearΆs acreage in the worldΆs fourth-largest cotton producer behind China, India and the United States.

PakistanΆs 2011-12 production totaled 14.8 million bales, up from an earlier estimate of 14.6 million, the association said. This estimate is the equivalent of around 11.6 million 480-pound bales, compared with 10.6 million foreseen by USDA last month.

Meanwhile, trend-following funds bought 9,955 lots in cotton futures-options combined during the week ended June 19 to reverse to net long 7,900 lots from net short 2,055 lots the previous week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Index funds bought a net 2,080 lots to boost their net long position to 70,618 lots, while traders with non-reportable positions bought 2,906 lots to reduce their net short holdings to 502 lots.

Commercials sold a net 14,941 lots, increasing their net short position to 78,016 lots. They covered 25,267 shorts and liquidated 40,209 longs. Their net short position jumped 11.1 percentage points to 30.3 percent of the open interest, largest since May 1.

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