By Duane Howell
For A-J Media

U.S. cotton futures finished a lightly traded, holiday-abbreviated period with a small weekly loss Thursday after rising above highs of the previous two weeks.

Spot March lost 38 points for the week to close at 63.28 cents, near a 33 percent retracement (63.32) of the 578-point rally from the Sept. 24 contract low at 59.45 to the Dec. 9 high at 65.23. It gained 64 points, or 1 percent, for the month.

The cotton market advanced 301 points, or 5 percent, for the year amid widespread losses in commodities. Cotton prices had plunged 2,437 points, or 28.8 percent, in 2014.

Cotton was among only four 2015 gainers — cocoa, sugar and frozen orange juice were the others — in the 19-component Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index. The index was down by a quarter over the year and hit its lowest level in December since 2002.

March hit the weekΆs high of 64.44 cents on Monday, highest since Dec. 10, and the low at 63.05 on Thursday ahead of the New YearΆs break. The low held just above a 38.2 percent retracement (63.02) of the Sept. 24-Dec. 9 rally.

Cash online grower sales increased to 67,056 bales for the week from 53,133 bales on The Seam. Prices rose to an average of 59.57 cents from 59.04 cents, reflecting gains to 10.85 cents from 10.55 cents in premiums over loan rates. Daily price averages ranged from 59.36 to 59.82 cents.

A paralyzing 11 inches of snow last weekend at Lubbock, the largest snow event since 1983, will significantly help subsoil moisture for 2016 crops across the Texas High Plains, the nationΆs leading cotton area. Eighteen inches fell at Friona, northwest of Lubbock.

The heavy snowfall, closing many roads and highways, interrupted the flow of cotton to market. Virtually all the crop was off the stalk, with a large volume stored in tarped modules in inaccessible fields.

However, some gins continued to operate, processing backlogged modules on their yards. Warehouse operations slowed and sample receipts were curtailed at USDAΆs classing facilities.

The market ticked down to the weekΆs low on the heels of USDAΆs weekly export sales-shipments report, even though sales came in at the upper end of the range of some expectations.

Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 114,300 running bales during the week ended Dec. 24, down from 130,000 RB the previous week, brought 2015-16 commitments to 5.174 million RB.

The gap behind commitments a year ago narrowed slightly to 2.337 million RB or 31 percent. Commitments amounted to 53 percent of the USDA export forecast, compared with 69 percent of final 2014-15 exports at the corresponding point last season.

Upland commitments of 4.972 million RB, down 33 percent from 7.37 million RB a year ago, were 54 percent of projected upland exports, compared with the five-year average of 82 percent.

All-cotton shipments of 166,500 RB, up from the previous weekΆs 137,500 RB, boosted the total for the season to 2.267 million RB, 51,000 RB behind exports a year ago. Upland shipments of 2.115 million RB lagged year-ago exports by 126,000 RB or by 6 percent.

Upland shipments for the season were 23 percent of the USDA forecast, compared with 21 percent of final exports a year ago and 26 percent for the five-year average.

To achieve the USDA estimate, all-cotton shipments need to average roughly 239,800 RB, while combined upland-Pima weekly sales averaging around 146,000 RB would match the export projection.

Upland sales for shipment next season of 9,100 RB, down from 36,900 the week before, hiked 2016-17 commitments to 741,300 RB, 179,600 RB ahead of forward bookings a year ago.

The market posted the weekΆs low amid yearend book-squaring and a USDA report reinforcing the tight availability of high-quality cotton.

U.S. upland classing of 773,902 RB during the week ended Dec. 24, down from 883,876 RB the prior week, brought the total for the season to 10.299 million, down 21 percent from 13.035 million RB graded a year ago.

The figures showed 56.2 percent for the met tenderable requirements, down from 71.0 percent a year ago. Tenderable cotton for the week improved to 57.3 percent from 56.0 percent.

Looking ahead, John Robinson, cotton economist with the Texas Agrilife Extension Service, said in a Bloomberg News report that December 2016 cotton futures have traded mostly between 62 and 66 cents since last January. December eased 13 points last week to close at 64.72 cents.

The December price behavior “is very similar to the futures prices for the 2015 crop,” Robinson said, adding that this would suggest the market isnΆt indicating a big swing in U.S. acreage back to cotton.

“The possible exception ... is that we donΆt have the competitive grain sorghum prices that we saw during 2015,” he said. “And presumably we wonΆt have the prevented planting (owing to excessive rains) that took out several hundred thousand acres of South Texas production in 2015.”

This might suggest 500,000 acres returning to cotton, he indicated.

That would mean a still-small U.S.-planted cotton area of 9 million or so acres, he observed, and that, in turn, “could set the cotton market up for some summertime volatility.”

The U.S. all-cotton planted acreage of 8.56 million in 2015 ranked as the smallest since the payment-in-kind farm program of 1983.

The issue for 2016, as one analyst put it, “may not be which is the best crop to plant but which is the most tolerable, given the depressed state of commodities.”

Meanwhile, trend-following funds reduced their net longs in cotton futures-options combined by 6,106 lots to 49,493 during the week ended Dec. 22, according to government data.

Index funds cut their net longs by a slight 188 lots to 61,632, while traders with nonreportable positions increased theirs by 1,043 lots to 5,149. Commercials trimmed their net shorts by 5,252 lots to 116,274, covering 5,715 shorts and liquidating 463 longs.