Cotton futures remained within a sideways trading band last week, considered rather remarkable in the face of bearish supply-demand forecasts featuring growing U.S. and world ending stocks.

Spot December dipped 117 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 101.56 cents, giving back part of a two-week advance of 344 points. It settled just above the midpoint of a 16-session trading band spanning a tight 579 points from 98.21 to 104 cents. Prices have ranged on a closing basis from 99.21 to 103.47 cents since Sept. 22.

The market had closed higher five of the previous six sessions and had reached the lower end of overhead technical resistance in a low-volume consolidation ahead of the USDA supply-demand report on Wednesday. This had rendered the market vulnerable to a selloff.

Mill fixations and Chinese buying interest offered support around the 100-cent mark, analysts said. Prices partially recovered on reduced volume from a 296-point loss the day the USDA report was released.

Cash business and grower sales on The Seam rose to a system-wide 9,078 bales. Prices averaged 92.64 cents within daily averages ranging from 88.27 to 102.90 cents. Premiums over loan redemption rates averaged 41.28 cents and ranged daily from 39.15 to 46.21 cents.

Prospective U.S. cotton production grew a slight 52,000 bales from September to 16.61 million, USDA said, while export prospects fell 500,000 bales to 11.5 million owing to lower foreign import demand. A lower crop estimate had been widely expected.

With beginning stocks and domestic mill use unchanged, the carryout rose by 500,000 bales to 3.9 million. The stocks-to-use ratio of 25.5 percent is higher than the previous two seasons but well below the five-year average.

The USDA narrowed its forecast for the average price received by producers by 2.5 cents on each end of the range to 87.5 to 102.5 cents per pound. The midpoint remained at 95 cents.

Production estimates increased in several states – led by a 200,000-bale hike to 2.7 million bales in Georgia – which more than offset a 200,000-bale decrease to 4 million bales in Texas. The Texas estimate has fallen by 500,000 bales the last two months.

It was November last year before evidence of small bolls and other factors resulted in a 600,000-bale cut from the previous month in a much larger Texas estimate. Analysts have pondered whether another sizable cut might be ahead for the current Texas crop.

Globally, production rose by 1.23 million bales to 124.19 million, consumption fell 840,000 bales to 114.38 million and ending stocks leaped 2.92 million bales or 5.6 percent to 54.83 million.

World trade fell 780,000 bales to 36.53 million, with ChinaΆs imports down 500,000 bales. Beginning stocks rose by 900,000 bales to 44.87 million, mostly because of prior-year revisions for Brazil and Bangladesh.

The world stocks-to-use ratio climbed to 47.9 percent from 45.1 percent foreseen in September and 39.2 percent in 2010-11 and is marginally above the preceding five-year average.

U.S. ginning totaled 1,764,050 running bales prior to Oct. 1, USDA said. This was down 23 percent from 2,284,450 bales ginned through the corresponding period last season but far ahead of 233,900 bales two years ago and 797,400 bales in 2008.

Fast-paced ginning in Texas reached 1,222,800 running bales, up from 730,400 bales a year ago, 191,000 bales in 2009 and 573,550 bales in 2008.

Converted to statistical bales, U.S. ginning totaled 7 percent of USDAΆs October crop estimate, compared with 12 percent of final production a year ago. Texas accounted for 69 percent of the ginning to October, against 32 percent through the corresponding period in 2010.

Crop prospects on the Texas High Plains fell 460,000 bales from the August forecast to 2.11 million bales, according to updated estimates.

Industry people at Lubbock viewed the new forecast as still overstated. No district estimates were available in September because of budget constraints. Release of the next district estimates is scheduled for December.

If achieved, the High Plains crop would be 40 percent of the 5.331 million bales produced in 2010. The crop would be the smallest since 1992 when growers gathered 1.43 million bales off 1.472 million acres.

Planted acres were revised up 230,000 from the August forecast to 4.61 million and acres for harvest declined 130,000 to 1.840 million. Abandonment reached 2.77 million acres, an all-time high of 60.1 percent, under the most severe one-year drought in recorded history.

The previous record high abandonment was 53.4 percent in 1992 when harvested acres were 1.688 million below the planted area.

Projected yields have fallen to 550 pounds from an average of 626 pounds expected in August and 724 pounds harvested last year. This is the smallest yield since growers harvested 452 pounds in 2003.

The High Plains crop would amount to 53 percent of the Texas output. In the adjoining Rolling Plains east of Lubbock, district estimates rose by 30,000 bales to 400,000, down from 1.023 million bales last year.

Estimates in other leading cotton states increased by 70,000 bales to 1.37 million in Arkansas, rose by 50,000 bales to 1.21 million in Mississippi and fell 130,000 bales to 1.17 million in North Carolina.

The USDA made no changes nationally in either planted acres or acres for harvest. It is not expected to revise planted acreage until January.

U.S. harvesting advanced 10 percentage points to 26 percent done during the week ended last Sunday, two points behind the average. Boll opening expanded six points to 90 percent, seven points above average.

Crop ratings improved slightly, with good to excellent up a point to 30 percent, fair down a point to 28 percent and poor to very poor unchanged at 42 percent. This marked the third consecutive week that ratings have improved. Conditions declined only in Oklahoma, South Carolina and Texas.