A combination of factors has triggered heavy long liquidation and pounded cotton futures through key support areas to lows not seen since early this year.

Spot December shed 461 points during the week ended Thursday to settle at 79.21 cents, its lowest close since Jan. 18. March lost 415 points to settle at 80.80 cents.

December hit waves of sell stops, taking out longstanding support from 80.11 to a double bottom at 81.72 en route to hitting a low for the week of 78.76 cents. It has shed 800 points, or 9.2 percent, for the month and at the low was down 902 points, or 10.3 percent, from the October high.

Reports of generally favorable U.S. harvest weather along with improved crop conditions, prospects for a record output in India, continued rapid growth in deliverable stocks and technical deterioration contributed to the setback, analysts said. Scale-down commercial buying failed to stem the five-day skid.

“Simply put, thereΆs just too much cotton in the world,” a trader said, referring to an all-time high 2013-14 global carryout projected at 94.7 million bales and a stocks-to-use ratio of 86.5 percent, though most of the stocks are in China and have been unavailable to the market.

Certificated stocks grew 53,274 bales to 102,093. Awaiting review were 42,573 bales. Open interest coming into ThursdayΆs session had fallen 3,248 lots from a week earlier to a total of 200,869, with DecemberΆs down 9,403 lots to 111,301 and MarchΆs up 4,112 lots to 67,239.

Cash grower-to-business sales fell Wednesday and Thursday on The Seam as futures weakened but increased to a crop-year high of 6,878 bales for the week from the prior weekΆs 5,060 bales.

Prices dipped 72 points to an average of 80.39 cents, reflecting a 45-point gain to 26.89 cents in premiums over lower loan repayment rates of 53.50 cents. Daily price averages ranged from 81.21 to 76.66 cents.

Weak U.S. export sales may have contributed to the negative futures sentiment, though the USDA data — delayed by the recent government shutdown — was old and not unexpected.

Net upland export sales for delivery this season of 44,000 running bales during the week ended Oct. 3 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior four-week average, USDA reported. The sales were the lowest since the week ended Aug. 8.

Gross sales rose to 116,800 bales from 64,300 bales the previous week but cancellations climbed to 72,800 bales from 3,800 bales. Net Pima sales of 25,400 bales fell 52 percent from the previous week but were up 4 percent from the prior four-week average.

Net upland sales included 16,900 bales to China, 15,100 to Vietnam, 8,000 to Indonesia, 7,000 to Colombia and 5,200 to Thailand. Cancellations included 25,300 bales to Turkey and 2,000 bales to Mexico.

Upland shipments of 129,000 running bales rose 28 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior four-week average. Pima exports of 4,700 bales, against 7,600 bales the week before, brought the weekΆs all-cotton shipments to 133,700 bales.

Net cancellations of 4,400 bales for shipment next season reduced 2014-15 commitments to 158,600 bales. Forward sales a year ago were 232,000 bales.

U.S. exports are expected to account for 27 percent of world cotton trade this season, equal to the average of the previous two seasons.

On the crop scene, U.S. cotton harvesting was 21 percent completed as of Sunday, Oct. 20, up 14 percentage points from the last report as of Sept. 29 before the government shutdown, USDA data showed.

But the harvest lagged 15 points behind a year ago and 13 points behind the five-year average. Growers in Texas had harvested 15 percent, down from 30 percent a year ago and 27 percent on average.

Harvesting was most advanced at 82 percent in Louisiana and 63 percent in Mississippi, ahead of the averages of 77 percent and 60 percent, respectively. Those were the only states where the harvest was ahead of average.

Boll opening from Sept. 29 increased 22 points to 81 percent, 12 points behind a year ago and 11 points behind the average. Cotton was 75 percent open in Texas, against 91 percent last year and 88 percent on average, and 87 percent in Georgia, behind 95 percent and 97 percent, respectively.

Crop conditions improved, with good to excellent up two percentage points to 42 percent, fair steady at 34 percent and poor to very poor down two points to 22 percent. The DTN cotton condition index rose to 102 from 92 on Sept. 29 and 78 a year ago.

Improved ratings in Texas showed good to excellent up two points to 32 percent, fair also up two points to 38 percent and poor to very poor down four points to 30 percent.

Ratings improved in nine states, held steady in three states and declined in only three states — North Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

On the international scene, the Cotton Association of India raised its crop forecast to 38.1 million 170-kilogram bales (29.8 million 480-pound bales) from its September projection of 37.5 million (29.3 million).

Moisture from recent rains is expected to help increase yields and production, the CAI said, though late rains delayed cotton arrivals. India is the worldΆs second-largest cotton producer and exporter.

The USDA projected IndiaΆs crop in September at a record 29 million 480-pound bales, up a million bales from the previous month and 2.5 million bales above the 2012-13 output.

Stiffer competition from India was a major factor in USDA reducing the U.S. September export estimate 200,000 bales from a month earlier to 10.4 million, lowest since 2000-01.

U.S. ending stocks are projected at a tight 2.9 million bales, a million bales below last seasonΆs carryout and the second lowest since 1995-96.