Howell: Cotton skids to new low for year as global recession fears mount

Howell: Cotton skids to new low for year as global recession fears mount

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Sweeping selling in commodities and equities on renewed fears of global recession slammed cotton futures to new continuation lows in a holiday-shortened trading week.

Most-active March shed 975 points for the week ended Wednesday to close at 90.91 cents after trading within a 1,115-point range from 100.88 to a new calendar year low of 89.33 cents. It came into the calendar week having completed a bearish outside-range reversal on its weekly chart.

Maturing December lost 1,279 points from a week earlier to settle at 90.71 cents, trading from 104.69 to 87.50 cents. Newedge USDA issued 168 of 169 first-day December delivery notices, all of which were stopped by Term Commodities, trading arm of Allenberg Cotton Co.

A steep cut to 893 lots in DecemberΆs open interest going into first notice day lessened the overall market effect of the delivery situation and the emergence, as expected, of a major commercial stopper.

The December 2012 contract closed at 88.94 cents, down 744 points from a week earlier. Crop insurance prices for the 2012-13 marketing season, which could affect planting decisions, are not expected to be announced until mid-January to mid-February.

March on Tuesday reversed from the new 11-month low — just above chart support at 88.90 — to race back above a key technical area at 91.25, an old low posted on July 18, and settle at 91.12 cents. This was seen as raising the prospect of a consolidation period in a down-trending market.

A 38.2 percent correction of the break from last weekΆs high to TuesdayΆs low would be 93.74 — around MondayΆs high of 93.71 — and a 50 percent retracement would be 95.10.

The market was closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving and was to trade shortened hours on Friday.

Cash sales on The SeamΆs grower-to-business exchange slowed to 7,635 bales for a four-day trading week from 21,955 bales the previous five-day period. Prices fell to an average of 85.07 cents from 98.40 cents, with loan redemption rates dropping to 53.03 cents from 55.15 cents.

Business-to-business sales fell to 8,884 bales from 13,985 bales. The cotton changed hands on prices averaging 88.78 cents, down from 94.29 cents. Loan repayment rates averaged 52.56 cents, up from 51 cents.

A report showing Chinese manufacturing activity slumping to a 32-month low and a weak German bond sale exacerbated worries about faltering global growth as commodities and equities plunged. Grains fell to multi-month lows.

The HSBC flash manufacturing purchasing managersΆ index, the earliest indicator of ChinaΆs industrial activity, slumped in November to 48, a low not seen since March 2009. Separately, a near flop of a German bond sale raised concerns the debt crisis was threatening EuropeΆs biggest economy.

Economic activity in China, which has the worldΆs second largest economy, generates keen interest in a variety of markets. It is the worldΆs top importer of soybeans, a significant buyer of U.S. corn and is the worldΆs leading raw cotton importer and raw cotton consumer.

The USDA has projected ChinaΆs 2011-12 cotton imports at 14 million bales, second largest on record and 39 percent of the world total. As of Nov. 10, China had booked 4.671 million statistical bales of U.S. cotton for delivery this season, 49 percent of the sales to all destinations.

On the U.S. crop scene, cotton harvesting advanced at a slowed five percentage points during the week ended last Sunday to reach 84 percent done, even with a year ago and 12 points ahead of the five-year average.

The harvest in top-producing Texas moved at a four-point pace to 82 percent, up four points from a year ago and 12 points from the average. Of the 18 percent remaining on the stalk, 63 percent was rated poor to very poor, 25 percent fair and 12 percent good.

Ginning remained active and harvesting continued in areas of the northern High Plains. Some producers there prepared to file new insurance claims on fields with abnormally low yields.

Producers in Georgia, the second leading cotton state, had picked 79 percent of their crop, up eight points from a week earlier but five points behind last year and five points ahead of the average.

Classing offices graded 1.338 million running bales of upland and 63,895 bales of Pima during the week ended Nov. 17, boosting the all-cotton total for the season to 9.328 million bales. A year ago, the offices had graded 10.846 million bales.

Upland classing for the season of 9.144 million bales was down from 10.715 million a year ago. Cotton meeting tenderable requirements totaled 71.9 percent for the week and 67.2 percent for the season, against 71.7 percent and 66.4 percent, respectively, the week before.

The USDA facilities had classed around 59 percent of the November crop forecast for upland and Pima combined.

Separately, U.S. all-cotton outstanding loans increased 450,084 running bales to 2.762 million during the week ended Nov. 15. Entries were 665,505 bales and repayments were made on 215,421 bales.

The outstanding total included 428,858 bales of Form A loans issued to individual growers and 2.333 million bales of Form G loans controlled by marketing cooperatives or loan servicing agents.

Meanwhile, trend-following funds bought a net 2,413 lots in cotton futures-options combined during the week ended Nov. 15, covering 2,365 shorts and adding just 48 new longs.

This raised their net long position to 13,371 lots short, while buying of a net 3,840 lots by index funds boosted theirs to 51,971 lots. Traders with non-reportable positions sold a net 1,695 lots to cut their net short position to 3,237 lots.

The net long positions in a bearish atmosphere likely spurred long liquidation selling when support levels were violated.

Commercials sold a net 7,947 lots to increase their net shorts to 62,106 lots. They covered 26,919 shorts and liquidated 34,766 longs. Open interest fell 79,247 lots to 180,303 following options expiration.

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