Bullish technical signals and a steady decline of stocks in deliverable position have contributed to driving cotton futures to a new eight-week high close.

Current-crop contracts inverted amid a strong cash basis and tight supplies of high quality cotton. The inversion, in part, is aimed at attracting more cotton to the board, analysts said.

Spot March jumped at midweek to its largest one-day advance since early August and closed the week ended Thursday with a gain of 421 points or 5.3 percent to 83.06 cents. This marked its highest close since Oct. 22. It posted what some viewed as a technical breakout on Friday, Dec. 6.

The May contract advanced 356 points to 82.80 cents, July gained 249 points to 82.07 cents and new-crop December rose 84 points to 76.97 cents.

March closed at midweek above a 50 percent retracement (82.14) of the decline from the October high of 87.62 to the November low of 76.65. It also settled back above its declining 50-day moving average as its nine-day average crossed above its 40-day average, then added a moderate gain on Thursday as it entered a continuation resistance area.

Certificated stocks declined to 59,346 bales from 96,521 bales a week earlier. Awaiting review were 3,926 bales.

Cash grower-to-business sales quickened to a crop year high of 141,804 bales on The Seam from 76,924 bales the previous week. Prices climbed to an average of 76.16 cents from 74 cents, reflecting gains to 22.30 cents from 20.70 cents in premiums over loan repayment rates.

Historically tight U.S. ending stocks forecast by USDA in TuesdayΆs monthly supply demand report may have offered support, though not surprising, even as the projected world carryout rose to a new all-time high. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio in the worldΆs largest cotton exporter remained at 21.4 percent, down from 23.6 percent last season.

U.S. supplies — beginning stocks plus the crop — edged down 40,000 bales on the month to 16.98 million, remaining the smallest in 30 years.

Production fell 36,000 bales to 13.069 million as decreases in the Southeast were mostly offset by increases in the Delta. Yields are expected to average 806 pounds per acre, down two pounds from the November forecast and 11 pounds below the five-year average.

Other estimates were steady at 3.6 million bales for domestic mill use, 10.4 million bales for exports and 3 million for ending stocks. The USDAΆs crop year average farm price forecast ranged from 70 to 78 cents, unchanged at the midpoint of 74 cents but narrowed a cent on each end.

Regionally, upland output dipped 129,000 bales to 4.486 million in the Southeast, rose by 85,000 bales to 2.75 million in the Delta, eked up 3,000 bales to 4.337 million in the Southwest and edged up 5,000 to 870,000 in the West.

Globally, beginning stocks rose by 1.08 million bales to 89.14 million, partly offset by a modest 390,000-bale cut to 116.83 million in production. Consumption edged only 50,000 bales to 109.68 million.

The carry-in was raised based on prior-year reductions in IndiaΆs consumption from official sources, USDA said. ChinaΆs crop was cut by a less-than-expected 500,000 bales to 32 million, PakistanΆs rose by 300,000 bales to 10 million and IndiaΆs held steady at 29 million bales.

World import demand declined 450,000 bales to 38.5 million, mainly because of larger available supplies in India and Pakistan.

The global carryout edged up 700,000 bales or 0.74 percent to 96.41 million. ChinaΆs projected ending stocks fell 500,000 bales to 57.31 million, reflecting the crop cut. These would comprise nearly 60 percent of the world carryout.

Ending stocks in the rest of the world outside China rose 1.2 million bales to 39.1 million. Increases included 100,000 bales each in India and Pakistan, 200,000 in Australia and 410,000 in Central Asian countries.

Many analysts had expected a modest gain in the U.S. crop estimate and a slight hike in the export forecast. The export projection is down 20 percent from last seasonΆs 13.03 million bales.

Despite that decline owing to tighter supplies, shipments and sales at this point of the marketing year are in a similar position to last season, USDAΆs Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report.

But in both 2013-14 and 2012-13, outstanding sales compared with marketing year total exports have remained well below previous years when there were significant purchases because of concerns over tight global stocks and rising prices.

ChinaΆs high stocks and a possible change in its reserve policy — to dispose of surpluses — have diminished concerns of rising prices. These factors have resulted in fewer forward purchases, FAS said.

U.S. export commitments — outstanding sales plus shipments — as of Nov. 28 totaled 66 percent of USDAΆs 2013-14 projection, compared with 63 percent of final exports at the corresponding point last season, 86 percent in 2011-12 and over 90 percent in 2010-11.

Meanwhile, all-cotton export sales slipped for the fourth consecutive week during the week ended Dec. 5, falling to 177,400 running bales from 253,800 bales the previous week.

But the sales still were well above the weekly average of roughly 99,000 bales required to match the USDA estimate. China was the top upland buyer, booking 50,700 bales, followed by Turkey with 37,400 bales.

Shipments quickened to 191,300 bales, largest for a single week since late August and up from 119,400 bales the week before. To reach the USDA estimate, shipments need to average around 231,100 running bales a week.

In its crop estimates, USDAΆs National Agricultural Statistics Service left the Texas upland forecast unchanged at 4.1 million bales, but a few small adjustments were made in district estimates.

The estimates edged up 30,000 bales to 2.475 million on the High Plains on yields averaging 660 pounds per acre, up eight pounds, and dipped 15,000 bales to 820,000 in the Rolling Plains. GeorgiaΆs estimate fell 150,000 bales to 2.35 million.