Global demand fears maintained pressure on cotton futures last week on the heels of bearish USDA world supply-demand estimates.
Benchmark March shed 576 points for the week ended Thursday to settle at 86.29 cents, finishing a second session below two watched Fibonacci support points at 86.71 and 86.51.
March closed in the lower quarter of the weekΆs 840-point range from 92.75 to 84.35, posting the high just prior to release of the supply-demand data and then falling to its lowest print since early December 2012. The December 2012 contract lost 467 points to 84.59 cents.
Weekly U.S. export sales illustrated weak international demand except for buying by China, which purchased 73 percent of the gross upland sales and now accounts for 54 percent of the all-cotton commitments. Net upland sales of 55,800 running bales reflected gross sales of 82,700 bales — including 60,500 by China — and cancellations of 26,900 bales.
All-cotton shipments slowed to 189,700 running bales, with 55 percent headed to China. Shipments for the season of 2.221 million running bales trailed year-ago exports by 1.102 million bales or about 33 percent.
Commitments rose to 10.142 million running bales, still just shy of 93 percent of USDAΆs unchanged export estimate. A year ago, commitments totaled about 97 percent of final exports.
In cash trading, sales on The SeamΆs grower-to-business exchange slid to 18,243 bales from 20,275 bales the previous week. Prices fell to an average of 82.97 cents from 91.09 cents. Loan redemption rates on the turnover dipped 52 points to an average of 54.44 cents.
Business-to-business sales fell to 3,341 bales on prices averaging 80.22 cents and loan repayment rates of 51.53 cents.
A steep reduction of 2.93 million bales in world mill use prospects from a month ago to 111.34 million bales and a jump of 2.71 million bales or nearly 5 percent to 57.67 million bales in the global carryout highlighted USDAΆs supply-demand estimates. Production is expected to exceed consumption by 12.08 million bales.
Unfavorable global economic conditions and cottonΆs relatively low share of fiber demand were mainly responsible for the cut in mill consumption. The carryout is expected to surge 27 percent from a year ago.
Projected U.S. exports remained at 11.3 million statistical bales, down 21 percent from last season, with domestic mill use down 300,000 bales to 3.6 million. With smaller exportable supplies and a record foreign crop projected, exports are forecast at the lowest since 2001.
The U.S. all-cotton supply now is estimated at 18.44 million bales, including a crop of 15.83 million bales, beginning stocks of 2.6 million and imports of 10,000 bales. This is the smallest supply since 1998-99 when it totaled 18.24 million bales.
The latest estimate of the Texas High Plains crop of 1.93 million bales, down 180,000 bales from the previous forecast, is the smallest in this prime cotton region since 1.43 million bales were harvested in 1992.
Projected output in the adjoining Rolling Plains fell 70,000 bales to 330,000 bales, against 1.023 million bales last season. This and the cut on the High Plains dropped the four-district West Texas Plains crop to 2.26 million bales, only 36 percent of last seasonΆs 6.354 million bales.
Meanwhile, China, the worldΆs top cotton consumer, imported 1.737 million bales in November, a rise of 199.6 percent from a year earlier, according to customs data reported by wire services.
China stepped up its imports after global cotton prices fell sharply earlier this year and has purchased large amounts of foreign supplies in recent weeks, primarily by the government to rebuild reserve stocks and not for consumption.
In addition to active buying on the world market, the China National Cotton Reserve Corp. also made steady purchases within China to defend the price floor the government is providing for the current crop.
A possible reason for booking large foreign supplies as well as purchasing domestic cotton is concern that output in China, also the worldΆs top producer, could fall significantly in 2012, USDA analysts say.
Recent crop prices within China suggest a sharp plantings decline, possibly supporting heavy imports for the governmentΆs official reserves. The China Cotton Index was quoted Thursday at 19.065 yuan per ton or 136.17 cents per pound.
ChinaΆs government soon will begin issuing quotas for 2012, making it easier for Chinese mills to buy much cheaper cotton on the world market than the current domestic price, a veteran industry analyst observed.
The NCRC by early in the week had bought 1.43 million tons (6.57 million bales) of domestic cotton. The government is said to have storage capacity for up to 18.831 million bales.
The USDA, which left its estimate of ChinaΆs crop unchanged at 33.5 million bales, raised its December forecast of the countryΆs 2011-12 imports by 1.5 million bales to 15.5 million and cut the mill use estimate by 500,000 bales to 45 million.
ChinaΆs imports are forecast up 29 percent from the prior crop year and the second highest on record, while its mill use is expected to drop 2 percent from last season. The crop estimate is up 10 percent and is 27 percent of the world output.