Howell: Huge sale boosts cotton from lowest price since August

Howell: Huge sale boosts cotton from lowest price since August

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Cotton futures have regained some of the prior weekΆs losses, bolstered by news of a huge U.S. export sale of nearly a million bales to China on the heels of a neutral USDA supply-demand report.

Spot December gained 138 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 99.50 cents, while March rose 108 points to 98.88 cents. The December 2012 contract eked out a 21-point gain to 96.64 cents.

Near December closed in the upper quarter of its 482-point range from a reversal-type low of 99.56 cents on Tuesday — lowest since Aug. 11 — to a seven-session high at 100.78 cents on Thursday. It closed above its nine-day and 18-day moving averages for the first time since Oct. 31.

Much of the weekΆs brisk activity featured rolling positions from December to forward contracts. The futures turnover of 52,000 lots on Thursday was the largest since February.

Spread trading accounted for up to 70 percent of the daily volumes as March assumed leadership in open interest. December options expired Friday and first notice day arrives Nov. 23.

Cash trading on The SeamΆs grower-to-business exchange climbed to 15,640 bales from 7,650 bales the previous week. Prices averaged 96.06 cents on cotton with loan redemption rates averaging 54.67 cents. Sales of 16,094 bales on the business-to-business exchange brought prices averaging 92.16 cents on cotton with loan repayment rates of 52.71 cents.

Futures hit the high when USDA reported net U.S. all-cotton weekly export sales surged to a stunning 999,900 running bales for shipment this season. This boosted commitments to 8.598 bales, about 78 percent of USDAΆs new export forecast.

China bought 996,100 bales of upland, accounting for all but 1,900 bales of total net upland sales, and has purchased about 45 percent of the overall commitments to all destinations. Commitments trailed year-ago sales by 3.256 million bales or by nearly 28 percent.

The huge sale to China was believed consummated by one merchant and likely related to rebuilding depleted reserve stocks in the worldΆs largest cotton producing and consuming country.

Total sales were the largest since the week ended Oct. 23, 2003 when net upland sales were 1.428 million bales, including 1.239 million or 87 percent purchased by China. The previous high for China at that time was 557,700 bales for the week ended Nov. 9, 1995.

Shipments of 110,500 running bales brought the seasonΆs total to 1.295 million, about 848,000 bales behind year-ago exports. Exports have reached about 12 percent of the new forecast, against about 16 percent of 2010-11 shipments at the corresponding point last season. About 15 percent of the commitments have been shipped.

Earlier, USDA reported U.S. crop prospects fell 308,000 bales during the past month to 16.3 million, while the export forecast dropped 200,000 bales to 11.3 million and ending stocks dipped 100,000 bales to 3.8 million. The estimates were in line with most expectations.

Domestic mill use was unchanged at 3.8 million bales. The stocks-to-use ratio eased to 25.2 percent from 25.5 percent. The USDA forecast a marketing-year average farm price of 84 to 96 cents, down 3.5 cents on the lower end and 6.5 cents on the upper end. The midpoint of 90 cents is down from 95 cents. Last seasonΆs farm price averaged 81.5 cents.

Yields fell 15 pounds to 794 pounds per acre, compared with the five-year average of 822 pounds. The estimated planted and harvested acres remained at 14.72 million and 9.85 million acres, respectively.

Upland output fell 128,000 bales to 5.28 million in the Southeast, 10,000 bales to 4.8 million in the Mid-South, 150,000 bales to 4.038 million in the Southwest, and 20,000 bales to 1.445 million in the West.

The cut in the Southwest was all in Texas, now estimated at 3.85 million bales. The Texas yield estimate fell 22 pounds to 578 pounds, down from the five-year average of 711 pounds.

The reduction in exports stemmed mostly from the smaller crop. Record U.S. carryover export sales offset slow first-quarter sales for the 2011-12 marketing year, USDA analysts pointed out. The historic run-up in cotton prices in late 2010 and early 2011 spurred unprecedented forward bookings of U.S. exports.

Carryover sales of more than 7.5 million statistical bales, about two-thirds of the current export forecast for the entire season, greeted the onset of the 2011-12 marketing year on Aug. 1.

More than half the carryover sales were made before prices began to fall in the spring of 2011. The sharp ensuing drop in prices led to unprecedented cancellations as buyers became unwilling or unable to take delivery of their higher-priced contracts.

Since the season began, cancellations totaled more than 1.5 million bales prior to the latest weekly report, essentially offsetting new sales. With so many commitments already on the books, new sales were constrained. Many buyers took a wait-and-see attitude in the face of declining prices.

Globally, ending stocks were virtually unchanged at 54.96 million bales, up just 130,000 bales or 0.2 percent but up 21.5 percent from a year ago. Beginning stocks rose by 350,000 bales to 45.22 million on mainly prior-year revisions in Turkmenistan.

World production fell by a slight 300,000 bales to 123.89 million, with reductions for the United States and Argentina more than offsetting an increase for Turkey. World consumption dipped a marginal 110,000 bales to 114.27 million. No changes were made for China, India and Pakistan.

Meanwhile, U.S. cotton harvesting advanced an accelerated 15 percentage points to 70 percent done during the week ended Nov. 6, a point ahead of last year and 17 points ahead of average. The harvest made double-digit progress in most states except those where it already was well advanced.

Proceeding at a rapid 20-point clip, the harvest in Texas reached 67 percent completed, up nine points from a year ago and 27 points — most of any state — ahead of the average.

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