Much-larger-than-expected U.S. export sales have lifted cotton futures from a new intraday seven-week low just as the market had appeared poised for another leg down.
Benchmark December gained 282 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 102.22 cents. It completed a daily outside-range reversal to the upside, falling to 98.21 cents — lowest since Aug. 12 — and then surging 496 points to 103.17 cents.
Underlying mill fixations offered support on pullbacks. The market slipped below the psychological 100-cent mark six straight sessions, alternately closing below that three times and rallying in two-sided action en route to finishing the period with the strong reversal.
December closed above its nine-day moving average for the first time since Sept. 15. The performance was seen as suggesting a limited near-term downside potential and a possible upside target of 104.70 to 107 cents, an analyst said.
Traders viewed the inability to follow through to the downside as a signal to try the other side again, another analyst commented. But fears of recession lingered.
Cash trading climbed to 2,608 bales on The SeamΆs grower-to-business exchange. Prices rose to a weekly average of 91.08 cents within daily averages ranging from 84.66 to 97.40 cents. Premiums over loan redemption rates averaged 40.53 cents and ranged daily from 35.85 to 42.59 cents.
Business-to-business sales jumped to 11,195 bales from 1,222 bales. The cotton changed hands at prices averaging 92.97 cents, up from 88.11 cents, and premiums of 41.56 cents, little changed from 41.87 cents.
News of the largest export sales in four weeks was viewed as examples of demand resting beneath 100 cents and indicating restoration of competitive pricing for U.S. cottons.
Net U.S. export sales climbed to 222,700 running bales during the week ended Sept. 22 from 66,300 bales the previous week. Gross upland sales were 251,900 running bales and cancellations were 29,300 bales.
Upland net sales included 199,400 bales to China, 36,200 to Turkey, 5,500 to Taiwan and 1,900 to China. These were partially offset by net cancellations of 21,200 bales to Bangladesh, 2,600 to Japan and 1,100 to South Korea. Optional origin sales, which can be either U.S. cotton or foreign growths, remained at 716,200 running bales for the season.
All-cotton shipments rose to 82,600 running bales from 59,900 bales. The top upland destinations included China, 36,900 bales; Mexico, 12,800; and Vietnam, 11,800.
On the crop scene, U.S. ratings improved during the week ended Sept. 25, USDA reported, with good to excellent up two percentage points to 29 percent, fair down a point to 27 percent and poor to very poor also down a point to 44 percent.
Cotton considered good in Texas gained two points to 13 percent, fair rose a point to 25 percent and poor to very poor fell three points to 62 percent. Conditions also improved in Arizona, Georgia and Tennessee, declined in seven states and held steady in Alabama, California, Missouri and North Carolina.
Boll opening expanded seven points to 76 percent, a point behind a year ago but 11 points ahead of average, while harvesting edged up two points to 13 percent done, behind four points and a point, respectively.
Cotton was 73 percent open in Texas, a whopping 20 points ahead of average. Some producers on the Texas High Plains continued to shred and plow under cotton not worth harvesting after insurance adjustments. This included even some cotton that had been sprayed with harvest-aid chemicals, revealing only tiny, drought-stressed bolls.
Concerns about quality persisted. Of the 163,961 bales classed nationally during the week ended Sept. 22, only 47.6 percent was tenderable on futures contracts. Classing rose to 1,216,450 bales for the season, while tenderable cotton fell to 56.1 percent from 57.4 percent a week earlier and 59 percent as of Sept. 8.
Elsewhere on the production scene, the National Cotton Council has expressed support for the Federal Crop Insurance Corp.Άs efforts to expand the offering of area-wide insurance products.
Area-wide products for revenue and yield, known was Group Risk Income Protection and Group Risk Plan, are offered currently on a limited basis.
In comments on the proposed rule, the council urged that the new area-wide protection be available for all counties with upland cotton production. For certain counties, it said, it may be necessary to aggregate counties into a larger geographical area.
“In those cases, FCIC should aggregate by the minimum amount necessary in order to allow the area-wide program to remain as localized as possible,” the NCC said.
The council agreed with FCICΆs decision to broaden the sources of yield data beyond the estimates produced by USDAΆs National Agricultural Statistics Service. The NCC stressed that there be sufficient transparency regarding any adjustments to the yield data or methods used to resolve discrepancies among various USDA data.
Also, FCIC was urged to review expected county yields that are indicative of current levels. With the use of additional data sources, FCIC was encouraged to explore the ability to expand the number of counties for which separate area-wide products can be offered for irrigated and non-irrigated practices.
Among other points, the NCC urged FCIC to offer the area-wide products at coverage levels up to 95 percent.
Meanwhile, net selling totaled 6,196 lots by trend-following funds, 1,045 lots by index funds and 2,762 lots by small traders in cotton futures-options combined during the week ended Sept. 20, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Their net long positions fell to 26,937 lots, 50,657 lots and 4,445 lots, respectively. Commercials bought a net 10,003 lots, covering 5,999 shorts and adding 4,004 longs. This was the largest weekly net reduction since Nov. 16 and left commercials with net shorts of 82,037 lots, smallest since July 5.