By Duane Howell

Larger-than-expected U.S. planting and additional beneficial rains on the Texas High Plains knocked reeling cotton futures to new lows for the move last week.

Benchmark December lost 279 points for the holiday-shortened trading week ended Thursday to close at 72.06 cents, its lowest close since early June 2012. Its contract low is 68.25 cents.

December has lost ground four consecutive weeks and eight of the last nine weeks. At ThursdayΆs low of 71.52 cents, December had plunged 13.22 cents, or 15.6 percent, from its May high and 6.81 cents, or 8.7 percent, from its June high.

Producers planted 11.369 million acres of cotton, up 9.2 percent from 10.407 million seeded a year ago, USDA reported. Upland plantings expanded 9.7 percent to 11.191 million acres from last yearΆs 10.206 million and the Pima area fell 11.4 percent to 178,000 acres.

By regions, upland plantings rose 3.6 percent to 2.763 million acres from 2.667 million in the Southeast, 18.2 percent to 1.46 million from 1.235 million in the Mid-South and 12 percent to 6.733 million from 6.012 million in the Southwest. Upland acres in the West fell 19.5 percent to 235,000.

Growers in top-producing Texas planted 6.45 million acres, up 11.2 percent from 5.8 million acres in 2013. The report is based primarily on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of June.

All-cotton plantings are up from the March intentions of 11.1 million acres. A survey of cotton analysts by The Wall Street Journal had projected plantings at 11.11 million acres.

Much attention now will focus on the July 11 supply-demand report when USDA is expected to incorporate the plantings data, raise its acres for harvest and crop estimates and boost its ending stocks forecast.

But some say USDA may not be as aggressive as otherwise might be expected in front of its first survey-based production estimate in August when results of actual field inspections will be available.

The June acreage estimates over the last 20 years have been below final cotton plantings 11 times and above the actual area nine times. Changes from the midyear estimates and the final figures have averaged 296,000 acres, ranging from a mere 3,000 acres to 992,000 acres.

Upland plantings on the Texas High Plains were in line with private estimates at 4.005 million acres, up 7 percent from last yearΆs 3.751 million acres. The region accounted for 62 percent of the Texas acreage and 36 percent of the U.S. upland area.

The total cotton area on the High and adjoining Rolling Plains combined rose to 5.155 million acres from 4.805 million last year.

Recent rains have greatly improved the areaΆs crop prospects from last year when mainly drought-related abandonment on the High Plains totaled a whopping 2.077 million acres, 55 percent of the planted area.

July rainfall already had reached 2.08 inches through Wednesday at Lubbock, up from the normal for the whole month of 1.91 inches. Precipitation for the year of 10.80 inches topped 5.09 inches a year ago and the normal of 9.41 inches.

Sharon Johnson, senior cotton specialist with KCG Futures in Atlanta, reviewed production scenarios at an Intercontinental Exchange webinar.

A couple of lower abandonment levels among her calculations with yields at or above average, which would assume normal weather, could result in a crop potentials of 16 million to 17 million bales, she said, up from 15 million bales estimated by USDA last month.

U.S. cotton ratings slipped slightly but remained favorable during the week ended June 29, according to USDAΆs crop progress report. Good to excellent held steady at 53 percent, fair dipped a percentage point to 34 percent and poor to very poor rose a point to 13 percent.

A year ago, good to excellent was 47 percent, fair 36 percent and poor to very poor 17 percent. The DTN cotton crop index eased two points for the week to 135, up from 118 a year ago.

Texas cotton was 40 percent good to excellent, unchanged on the week, while poor to very poor rose a point to 20 percent. A year ago, good-excellent was 31 percent and poor-very poor was 27 percent.

U.S. squaring advanced 11 points to 36 percent, a point ahead of last year but six points behind the five-year average. Squaring in Texas at 18 percent lagged 11 points behind a year ago and 14 points behind average.

Boll setting at 7 percent beltwide edged ahead of last yearΆs 6 percent but lagged the average of 10 percent. In Texas, 7 percent also was setting bolls, against 9 percent a year ago and 11 percent on average.

On the demand side, U.S. old-crop export sales climbed to 41,400 running bales during the week ended June 26 from 4,600 bales the previous week, while new-crop sales rose to 59,800 bales from 24,100 bales. Old-crop sales were about expected but new-crop sales were below expectations.

Shipments quickened to 175,100 bales from 138,100 bales. To achieve the estimate, shipments now need to average roughly 131,400 bales a week.

In its monthly report, the International Cotton Advisory Committee said rising stocks and falling imports will put downward pressure on international prices in 2014-15. It projects world prices as measured by the Cotlook A Index at 82 cents, down from 87 cents foreseen a month ago, an estimated 91 cents in 2013-14 and 88 cents last season.

Meanwhile, trend-following funds sold a net 563 lots, liquidating more longs than shorts, to cut their net longs by 3.6 percent to 14,843 lots in cotton futures-options combined in the week ended June 24.

Index funds bought a net 387 lots to push their net longs to 64,077 lots, while traders with non-reportable positions bought a net 375 lots to hike theirs to 505, according to government data.

Commercials sold a net 201 lots, liquidating 15,844 longs and covering 15,643 shorts to nudge their net shorts up to 79,425 lots.

DUANE HOWELL is retired farm editor of the Avalanche-Journal. Letters can be sent to P.O. Box 16347, Lubbock 79490, or faxed to (806) 799-7462. His email address is duane.howell@sbcglobal.net.