A new set of bearish fundamentals has maintained pressure on cotton futures, capping rally attempts after the spot delivery fell to its lowest intraday print since Dec. 23.

Spot May lost 222 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 87.34 cents, near the 87.01-cent low posted Monday after India eased its export ban to allow shipment of outstanding sales. May closed down 6.90 cents from the prior weekΆs knee-jerk reaction high on the export ban.

New-crop December, seemingly trying to discourage plantings, shed 302 points to finish at 88.27 cents. It has closed lower eight sessions in a row and in 11 of the last 12.

Cash trading slowed to 9,399 bales from 11,573 bales the previous week on The SeamΆs grower-to-business exchange. Prices fell 372 points to an average of 78.55 cents as premiums over loan redemption rates dropped to 26.49 cents from 30.45 cents.

India announced it will continue to prohibit fresh cotton exports except that the sales outstanding on March 4 can be shipped. Reports indicated the government would review the issue in two weeks.

The total ban was announced March 5 after exports had reached a record 9.4 million bales (of 170 kilos or 375 pounds). An additional 2.5 million bales of outstanding sales were awaiting shipment.

This allowable export total of almost 12 million local bales or 9.3 million 480-pound bales would exceed USDAΆs latest estimate of 7.75 million. The USDA estimate had assumed the ban would remain in place. Exports plus domestic mill use of 19.5 million bales, as estimated by USDA, could outstrip the crop, still pegged by USDA at 27 million bales.

In its March supply-demand estimates, USDA projected world 2011-12 ending stocks up 1.55 million bales from the February forecast to 62.3 million bales. This is up 32 percent from a year ago, owing to rising production and declining mill use.

Global production is expected to outpace mill use by 14.9 million bales, highest on record. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 57.3 percent, up 16 percentage points from the previous year.

The only changes in the U.S. estimates were a 100,000-bale reduction in domestic mill use to 3.4 million bales, down 500,000 bales from last season, and a corresponding increase to 3.9 million bales in ending stocks. U.S. mills consumed only 1.6 million bales through the first half of the marketing year, down from about 2 million a year earlier.

Domestic mill use is expected to improve slightly in the second half of 2011-12 as the economy continues to improve and cotton prices are more competitive with polyester. Exports remain forecast at 11 million bales, nearly 3.4 million below 2010-11 and the lowest in a decade.

Total U.S. offtake fell to an estimated 14.4 million bales, 21 percent below last season and the lowest since 1988-89. With unchanged production exceeding demand, ending stocks are projected up 50 percent from last seasonΆs near-record low.

The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 27 percent, above the last two seasons but well below the three previous marketing years.

After USDA reported robust U.S. export sales and shipments for the week ended March 8, the market finished the day in the lower reaches of the sessionΆs range with only slight gains in nearby deliveries.

Net sales for shipment this season of 247,800 running bales lifted commitments to 11.303 million, 6 percent above the USDA estimate in running bales. Some of an additional 1.45 million bales of optional-origin sales could involve U.S. cotton. New-crop sales of 118,800 running bales lifted 2012-13 commitments to 729,000.

Shipments of 379,200 running bales boosted exports for the season to 5.897 million. This is 55 percent of the USDA forecast, against 60 percent of final exports at the corresponding point last season.

Traders noted that ChinaΆs cotton imports surged 89 percent in February from the previous month and 234 percent from a year ago to 616,000 metric tons (2.83 million 480-pound bales).

January-February imports rose 64 percent from a year ago to 942,500 tons (4.33 million bales), a website operated by the China National Cotton Reserves Corp. also reported.

The USDA estimated ChinaΆs 2011-12 imports at 18.5 million bales, up 54 percent from last season. This would be ChinaΆs second-largest imports on record. China has bought 53 percent of the U.S. export commitments.

Mills in China have intensified imports to replace domestic supplies purchased by the government for the national reserve, analysts say. If realized, ChinaΆs imports will account for 48 percent of global cotton trade, more than offsetting declining imports by other major importers.

China, the worldΆs leading cotton spinner, is expected to consume 43.5 million bales, down 5 percent from 2010-11. This would be ChinaΆs lowest mill use in seven years.

Looking ahead, Informa Economics, Memphis-based analytical firm, has estimated U.S. cotton plantings at 13.698 million acres, sources said, down 7 percent from 14.732 million acres seeded last year.

The USDA projected 13.2 million acres at its Outlook Forum last month and will issue its survey-based prospective plantings report March 30. An early National Cotton Council survey indicated growers planned cotton plantings of 13.63 million acres.

Producers in South Texas are described as optimistic because of good planting moisture. Planting has begun in the Rio Grande Valley.

Some producers on the Texas High Plains are pre-watering only half their normal irrigated acres and plan at the moment to dryland farm the rest, depending upon weather. Others are leaving pivots idle and will pre-water only their drip-irrigated acres where they also have row-watering capabilities. Some donΆt have that ability with drip systems.

Soil moisture conditions on the High Plains as of March 11 were rated short to very short in 99 percent of the northern district and 84 percent of the southern counties.