Howell: Reinvigorated bears pound cotton to new multi-year lows

Howell: Reinvigorated bears pound cotton to new multi-year lows

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Reinvigorated bears have pounded cotton futures to new multiyear lows amid ongoing concerns about world stocks rising in 2014-15 for the fifth consecutive year to a new all-time high.

Benchmark December lost 160 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 66.05 cents, just below the June 2012 low of 66.10 established on the July delivery that year and the lowest finish for a most actively traded contract since October 2009.

December triggered a slew of sell stops on a move through 67.10, the low hit July 11 on USDAΆs supply-demand report, and again below 66.10 en route to an intraday low of 65.66 cents, down 1,908 points or 22.5 percent from the May high. It has lost ground six calendar weeks in a row and in 10 of the last 11 weeks.

Until plunging on Thursday, prices had stabilized around 68 cents, closing nine consecutive sessions within 30 points above and 36 points below that. And December had closed at midweek above its nine-day moving average for the first time since a one-day stand there June 23.

Slower global growth foreseen by the International Monetary Fund stirred new concerns about demand for economically sensitive cotton, analysts said. The IMF predicted that global growth will be 3.4 percent in 2014, below its April forecast of 3.7 percent. But it still expects growth of the worldΆs economy to accelerate a bit to 4 percent in 2015.

The lending organization forecast much slower growth in the United States, which on a per capita basis is the worldΆs largest consumer of cotton products. The IMF predicted just 1.7 percent U.S. growth, which would be the weakest since the recession officially ended five years ago.

On the international crop scene, a Bloomberg report quoted IndiaΆs biggest cotton trader as saying the countryΆs cotton production is set to reach a record high as delays in monsoon rains prompt a switch from soybeans and peanuts to cotton.

B.K. Mishra, chairman of the Cotton Corp. of India, said production is poised to expand as much as 2.6 percent to 40 million bales of 170 kilograms (31.25 million 480-pound bales). While the area is increasing from 11.7 million hectares (28.9 million acres), the harvest will be delayed by the worst start to the monsoon since 2009, he said.

The Cotton Corp. buys the crop at government-set minimum prices. The crop projection would lift IndiaΆs current ranking as the worldΆs second largest cotton producer in USDA estimates to the top slot.

But a Directorate of Cotton Development report released Thursday showed IndiaΆs cotton planting progress as of July 16 at 5.56 million hectares (13.7 million acres), down 45 percent from 10.06 million hectares (24.9 million acres) a year ago.

In its July supply-demand report, USDA projected IndiaΆs 2014-15 production at 28 million 480-pound bales, down 500,000 bales from its June forecast and 8.2 percent below the 2013-14 output of 30.5 million bales. This would be IndiaΆs smallest cotton crop in four seasons.

The market shrugged off a USDA report showing U.S. new-crop export sales remained strong at 372,400 running bales during the week ended July 17, up from 342,900 bales the previous week. New-crop commitments climbed to 3.348 million, 34 percent of the USDA forecast. A year ago, forward sales were 22 percent of the current USDA estimate for 2013-14.

The weekly sales again went to 19 countries, indicating broad-based buying from around the world.

Net old-crop sales of 800 bales nudged 2013-14 commitments to 10.804 million, 106 percent of the estimate. Puny shipments of 73,200 bales, down from 86,600 bales the previous week, brought exports for the season to 9.961 million, about 98 percent of the forecast. Roughly 224,300 running bales remained to be shipped to reach the estimate.

On the U.S. crop scene, ratings dipped slightly during the week ended July 20, USDA reported, with good to excellent down a percentage point to 52 percent, fair up a point to 34 percent and poor to very poor unchanged at 14 percent.

A year ago, good to excellent totaled 44 percent, fair 32 percent and poor to very poor 24 percent. The DTN cotton crop conditions index eased a point to 132, up from 96 last year.

In Texas, good to excellent cotton slipped two points to 37 percent and poor to very poor remained at 23 percent, compared with ratings a year ago of 26 percent and 38 percent, respectively.

Squaring advanced 15 points to 85 percent, up from 76 percent last year and the five-year average of 82 percent. Cotton setting bolls expanded 14 points to 24 percent, against 26 percent a year ago and 37 percent on average.

In Texas, squaring advanced 22 points to 81 percent and boll setting rose nine points to 24 percent, compared with the averages of 78 percent and 27 percent, respectively.

Many traders expect USDA to raise its U.S. crop estimate in its supply-demand report on Aug. 12, though the Texas High Plains crop remains behind normal progress and will need rain soon and then an open fall.

Meanwhile, trend-following funds sold a net 4,923 lots in U.S. cotton futures-options combined to boost their net shorts to 5,732 lots during the week ended July 15, according to supplemental traders-commitments data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

They went short the prior week have built their largest net short position since Nov. 19, 2013. Index funds sold 3,363 lots to reduce their net longs to 60,170, while traders with non-reportable positions sold a net 480 lots to raise their net shorts to 2,770 lots.

Commercials bought 8,666 lots, adding 6,474 longs and covering 2,192 shorts to reduce their net shorts to 51,668 lots. In futures only, non-commercials clung to a net long position of 1 percent of the open interest, down from 3.5 percent a week earlier.

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