By Duane Howell

Weak U.S. export sales, growing stocks in deliverable position and deteriorating technical factors following negative supply-demand estimates have sent cotton futures to the lowest close in more than a month.

Spot July lost 269 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 90.36 cents, its fifth consecutive daily loss and seventh in the last eight sessions. It closed at its lowest finish since April 10.

July finished 640 points, or 6.6 percent, below the high for the move on March 26. Certified stocks grew to 401,681 bales, largest since July. The steady growth partly reflects slow export demand.

December dropped 89 points to settle at 82.62 cents, its lowest close since April 23 and below its 18-day moving average for the second straight session.

The inverted July-December spread narrowed 180 points to close at 7.74 cents after falling to 7.08 cents, lowest since January.

Upland export sales for 2013-14 fell 55 percent from the prior four-week average to 34,000 running bales during the week ended May 8. All-cotton commitments reached 9.981 million running bales, 98 percent of the latest USDA estimate, against 101 percent of final exports a year ago.

Upland shipments slipped 9 percent from the previous four-week average to 210,900 bales, still above the weekly all-cotton average of 151,600 bales required to achieve the forecast.

All-cotton shipments of 8.42 million running bales were 83 percent of the projection. A year ago, shipments were about 82 percent of 2012-13 exports.

All-cotton sales for shipment next season of 12,600 bales, down from 152,500 the previous week, nudged 2014-15 commitments to 1.715 million bales. New-crop commitments are 18 percent of USDAΆs initial forecast, while forward bookings a year ago were 16 percent of the current 2013-14 export estimate.

On the crop scene, U.S. planting advanced at the fastest pace of the season during the week ended May 11, expanding 14 percentage points to 30 percent complete.

Progress moved eight points ahead of a year ago and narrowed the gap behind the five-year average to only four points, USDA figures showed.

Planting reached 24 percent complete in Texas, up from 19 percent a year ago but behind average by four points. Georgia growers had planted 24 percent, two points ahead of last year but five points behind average.

Progress exceeded the five-year averages in seven of the 15 reporting cotton states, up from only three states a week earlier.

Planting lagged as mid-May approached on the Texas High Plains but was expected to quicken as temperatures warmed. With one of the normally wettest months of the year half gone, Lubbock had received only a trace of rain in May and still only 0.90 of an inch of precipitation since Jan. 1.

Cold temperatures — northwestern counties experienced a light freeze — prompted concerns about chill injury to germinating seeds in irrigated fields. Most of the planting has been confined to irrigated ground.

Producers have hesitated to plant their dryland acres without a planting rain but will be compelled to dry-plant, if necessary, ahead of insurance deadlines, which range from May 31 in the north, early June in the central area and mid-June on the southern end.

In its initial 2014-15 supply-demand estimates, USDA pegged U.S. crop prospects at a smaller-than-expected 14.5 million bales.

Abandonment is projected at 24 percent owing to severe drought in the Southwest, which is expected to account for nearly 61 percent of the upland planted area, the highest since at least 1920.

Lower world import demand is expected to cut U.S. exports by 7 percent from this season to 9.7 million bales, while domestic mill use is forecast to rise by 100,000 bales to 3.7 million. Total offtake is projected to fall 600,000 bales, or 4.3 percent, to 13.4 million.

Ending stocks are projected to grow to 3.9 million bales from beginning stocks now estimated at 2.8 million bales.

The stocks-to-use ratio of 29.1 percent is up from 20 percent forecast for this season and the highest since 37.7 percent in 2008-09.

The USDA forecast the average 2014-15 producer price within a range from 63 to 83 cents. The midpoint of 73 cents is down from 77.50 cents estimated for 2013-14 and just above 72.50 cents in 2012-13.

Globally, projected 2014-15 stocks came in at a larger-than-expected 101.66 million bales, a new all-time high for the fourth year in a row and up from beginning stocks now pegged at 97.91 million bales.

Production is projected down 1.4 percent from 2013-14 to 115.5 million bales as reductions mainly in China, Australia and India are partially offset by increases in the United States, Brazil and Turkey.

Consumption is expected to rise more than 2 percent to 111.83 million bales, based on projected growth in the world economy and expected reductions in ChinaΆs price support levels.

Beginning stocks in China are expected to reach nearly 60 million bales, more than 60 percent of world stocks. ChinaΆs imports are projected to fall about a third to 8.5 million bales, with the government likely to restrict imports in favor of consumption of domestic cotton.

China accounts for virtually all the expected 10 percent reduction to 36.29 million bales in world trade. With ChinaΆs ending stocks expected to grow slightly, world stocks outside China would rise by 2.8 million bales, or about 7 percent, to 41.15 million, the first such increase in three years.

Despite the overall bearish scenario, USDA analysts say prices are projected to remain relatively high because the massive reserve stocks in China are expected to remain off the market under the current policy. However, any policy changes resulting in significant quantities moving out of the reserves could have a negative price impact.

For 2013-14, the final U.S. crop estimate of 12.9 million bales is little changed from April, as expected, but an unexpected 300,000-bale cut in exports ­— attributed to a recent fall-off in sales — resulted in a similar hike in ending stocks.