A slew of weak global economic data hit outside markets and spilled into already shaken cotton futures late last week as the dollar surged in a “safe-haven” bid, commodities plunged and equities dived.
Spot July locked limit down two sessions in a row after having locked limit up two straight days and still eked out a board gain for the week ended Thursday of eight ticks to 78.17 cents.
December also fell by the limit and shed 289 points for the week to close at 67.71 cents, down from its intraday high on Tuesday of 74.80 cents, highest since May 22. March lost 330 points to 69.08 cents.
The point changes masked wild gyrations in which old-crop July at the weekΆs high of 89.48 cents — hit the same session in which it subsequently plunged the expanded 500-point daily limit — had vaulted 23.38 cents or 35.4 percent from its contract low on June 4.
Then on the limit plunge some trapped longs in July were reported selling December in hedge maneuvers. The July-December straddle collapsed to as tight as 12 points after trading the prior session at July premiums as wide as 1,649 points.
On the spread, July traded as low as a theoretical 67.83 cents. Based on the switch close at 70 points, July finished at 68.41 cents.
“ItΆs been total chaos and panic,” commented Mike Stevens, veteran independent cotton analyst of Mandeville, La. The extreme volatility hurt both bulls and bears, he said, leaving “blood in the streets both ways.”
Merchants withdrew from the physical market, he said, unable to get “even a courtesy bid” amid the violent price swings.
Short-covering spurred most of the early-week, July-led gains as scarce U.S. old-crop supplies tightened further after huge sales were made to China earlier this month. But the market still faces bearish supply-demand fundamentals for the coming season.
Open interest in July, which enters its delivery notice period Monday, fell sharply to 6,270 lots heading into ThursdayΆs session from 43,368 lots a week earlier. Certificated stocks dipped to 118,861 bales from 123,913 bales, with 4,598 bales awaiting review.
Cash grower-to-business trading turned inactive on The Seam at the end of the period but totaled 5,215 bales on the market upswing, up from 3,987 bales the previous week. Prices advanced 950 points to average 76.77 cents, with premiums over loan repayment rates up to 23.03 cents from 13.85 cents.
Outside influences and enigmas surrounding the soon-to-mature July delivery overshadowed U.S. export sales-shipments data.
Net sales for delivery this season and next totaled 491,900 running bales during the week ended June 14 — 19,900 bales of old-crop sales and a hefty 472,000 bales of new-crop business. The sales nudged 2011-12 commitments to 13.085 million running bales, 16 percent above the latest USDA estimate, and boosted 2012-13 bookings to 2.362 million bales.
Shipments of 180,600 running bales brought exports for the season to 9.973 million, about 89 percent of the forecast. Average shipments of roughly 213,100 running bales a week are needed to reach the estimate.
On the U.S. crop scene, ratings improved in most states but continued to decline in Texas during the week ended June 21, USDA reported. The report offered some new-crop support early in the week.
The national ratings pegged good to excellent up two points to 53 percent, poor to very poor also up two points to 15 percent, and fair down four points to 32 percent. Poor-very poor cotton was four points below the 10-year average.
The Dow Jones crop index fell 1.3 points to 95.5, the third straight week of decline, led by another four-point decline in Texas to 88.
Conditions improved in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Tennessee; fell in addition to Texas in Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia; and held steady in Alabama and Mississippi.
Squaring advanced eight points to 27 percent, up from 19 percent last year and the five-year average, while boll setting at 5 percent trailed last year by two points but was a point ahead of average. Only crops in Texas, Louisiana and North Carolina were behind their five-year average squaring pace.
Timely rains provided much-needed moisture and improved row crops across most of Texas, USDA said. However, cotton rated good to excellent fell a point in the top cotton state to 39 percent, fair dropped five points to 37 percent and poor-very poor rose by six points to 24 percent.
A significant amount of cotton sustained wind and hail damage in the Texas Plains, USDA said, and dryland crops around South Texas and the Edwards Plateau were moisture-stressed because of hot, dry conditions. Irrigation was active in those areas.
Blowing sand and what farmers called static electricity inflicted additional damage on some hailed-on cotton that initially had appeared salvageable on the High Plains. However, crop sources said benefits from the moisture on the larger acreage outside the hail areas would outweigh the damage.
In contrast to Texas, crops in Georgia, the No. 2 cotton state, jumped eight points to 70 percent good to excellent, dropped six points to 28 percent fair, and dipped two points to 2 percent poor-very poor.
Meanwhile, trend-following funds bought a net 1,728 lots to chop their net short position by 45.7 percent to 2,055 lots in futures-options combined during the week ended June 12.
They have reduced their net short position three weeks in a row. Index funds bought a net 569 lots to raise their net long position to 68,538 lots, while traders with non-reportable positions sold a net 105 lots to hike their net shorts to 3,408 lots.
Commercials sold a net 2,191 lots, liquidating 2,567 longs and covering 376 shorts. Their net short position rose to 63,075 lots.