Global Cotton Consumption Expected to Grow in 2018/19

Current projections for the 2017/18 season include production at 25.8 million tons and consumption at 25.4 million tons. Production increases are coming off gains in planted area rather than yields this season. Global average yield for 2017/18 is currently being estimated at 778 kilograms per hectare, a 0.1% increase from the previous season, while area increases are 12% greater from the previous season. Major producers, India and Pakistan, with estimated area increases of 16% and 24% respectively, encountered production losses from pink bollworm this season. While most major cotton producing countries have estimated increased planted area for 2017/18 over the previous season, Australia has decreased planted area yet still increased cotton production with a yield growth of 16% with an estimated yield of 1936 kg per hectare.

Global cotton production is projected to decline in 2018/19 based on lower yields and decreases in harvested area. Global cotton consumption is projected to continue to grow in 2018/19 based on global economic expansion, an expected acceleration of consumer demand for textiles, manufacturing growth for cotton, and rising environmental and production costs for synthetics. Current estimates for the 2018/19 season are for production to move to 25.4 million tons and consumption to rise to 26.5 million tons. Based on these projections, global stocks would decline to 18.2 million tons with projections for global trade to go to 9.15 million tons.

* The price projection for 2017/18 is based on the ending stocks to mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2015/16 (estimate), in 2016/17 (estimate) and in 2017/18 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2016/17 (estimate) and 2017/18 (projection), and on the average price for the first 6 months of 2017/18. The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 73 cts/lb to 85 cts/lb.