Washington, DC — If a projected 7% increase in world cotton lint production to 25.8 million tonnes happens, the projected 2% increase in consumption to 25.5 million tonnes would mean the global market is heading toward a bearish outlook.
And unfortunately, it's coming at a time when the cotton trade is already facing supply chain issues due to its highly fragmented structure, not to mention geopolitical factors like the security issues on the Suez Canal and worldwide logistics delays.
Trade has been revised downward to 9.45 million tonnes due to decreased import demand from China; minor gains from other parts of the world — primarily Bangladesh, Egypt, Turkey, India, and Vietnam — likely will be insufficient to offset the decrease in imports.
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2024/25 ranges from 79 cents to 88 cents, with a midpoint at 83 cents per pound. ICAC’s price projections are made by Lorena Ruiz, Economist, ICAC.
