Executive Summary
Highlights from the February 2021 Cotton This Month include:
- Double-digit production decreases are expected in many major producing countries
- Production declines in consuming countries are projected to drive an increase in trade in 2020/21
- This season, US exports will jump by 45% and Brazil’s exports will increase by 17%
- Ending stocks for the 2020/21 season are now estimated at 21.1 million tonnes, potentially easing pressure on prices
Pandemic Recovery and Production Decreases Are Expected to Boost Trade in 2020/21
Global production is expected to decline by 8% to 24 million tonnes in the coming season, with double-digit decreases in crop size projected in the United States, Brazil, Pakistan, West Africa, Turkey and Uzbekistan.
Because some of those decreases are expected to be in consuming countries that rely on domestic production to feed their mills, global trade is projected to rebound in 2020/21 to 9.3 million tonnes. Two of the world’s top exporters, the USA and Brazil, are estimated to see 45% and 17% increases in the coming season, respectively.
Ending stocks for the 2020/21 season are now estimated at 21.1 million tonnes, potentially easing pressure on prices. The Secretariat’s current price projection for the year-end 2020/21 average of the A Index is 73.5 cents per pound.
Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 February 2021. The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 March 2021.
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Please contact the author, Ms. Lihan Wei, with questions on this report.
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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.
