ICAC Press Release, March 1, 2010

ICAC Press Release, March 1, 2010

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Cotton Prices Surge in February

Cotton prices increased sharply in February 2010. The Cotlook A Index

rose from 75.35 cents per pound on February 1 to 85.55 cents per

pound on February 26. Cotton prices are supported by strong

fundamentals: reduced production and rebounding mill use are expected

to generate a 15% drop in global cotton stocks.

Based on the expected change in the ratio of ending stocks to use

outside China and the average Cotlook A Index to date, the ICAC Price

Model is projecting the 2009/10 Cotlook A Index at 74 cents per

pound, 21% higher than in the preceding season. The 95% confidence

level extends from 69 cents to 79 cents per pound. The daily Index

could remain above 80 cents per pound for some time, but competition

with polyester and the expected increase in 2010/11 cotton production

could cause prices to return to lower levels for the last few months

of the 2009/10 season.

Higher prices paid for 2009/10 cotton, combined with the recent

decline in prices of grains and oilseeds and relatively stable

production costs, will encourage farmers to increase cotton plantings

in 2010/11. World cotton production is forecast to rebound by 10% to

24.4 million tons. World cotton mill use is expected to continue to

recover in 2010/11, growing by 3% to 24.8 million tons, driven by

continued improvement in global economic growth. World cotton trade

is projected to increase slightly in 2010/11 to 7.5 million tons. A

small reduction in cotton ending stocks is expected in 2010/11.

                           WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION

                           2008/09 2009/10 2010/11   2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

                                   Million Tons            Million Bales

Production                    23.41   22.2   24.4      107.5    102    112

Consumption                   23.23   24.1   24.8      106.7    111    114

Exports                        6.56    7.3    7.5       30.1     34     35

Ending Stocks                 12.33   10.5   10.1       56.6     48     46

Cotlook A Index*              61.20   74**              61.20    74**

* Season-average Cotlook A Index (U.S. cents per pound).

**  The price projection for 2009/10 is based on the ending

stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China in 2007/08

(estimate), in 2008/09 (estimate) and in 2009/10 (projection), on the

ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2008/09 (estimate)

and 2009/10 (projection), and on the average price for the first

seven months of 2009/10. 95% confidence interval: 69 to 79 cents per

pound.

(Press releases are available via e-mail.  For further information,

please contact us at
Publications@icac.org)

The International Cotton Advisory Committee is an association of

governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The

Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world

cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical

information on cotton production technology. Detailed statistics are

found bimonthly in COTTON: Review of the World Situation, $185 per

year. A monthly outlook is available on the Internet for $295 per

year. Access to the weekly estimates of world cotton supply and use

by the Secretariat is also available on the Internet for $460 per

year.

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