ICAC Revises Its Price Forecast to 86.45 cents
ICAC Revises Its Price Forecast to 86.45 cents

ICAC Revises Its Price Forecast to 86.45 cents

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Executive Summary

Highlights from the January edition of Cotton This Month regarding the 2018/19 season:

  • The midpoint for the 2018/19 price forecast is 86.45 cents/lb, down from last month’s forecast of 89 cents
  • The price forecast has a range from 75.60 cents to 100.21 cents
  • The projection reflects a 95% confidence interval
  • The forecast is based various assumptions, including global consumption, ending stocks, and world trade

 

 

 

ICAC Revises Its Price Forecast to 86.45 cents

 

With a confidence interval of 95%, the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has set its 2018/19 price forecast for cotton fibre at 86.45 cents per pound, down from 89 cents in December 2018.

The forecast, which has a price range from a low of 75.60 cents to a high of 100.21 cents, is based on the following assumptions:

  • World cotton consumption will be 26.7 million tonnes.
  • World cotton ending stocks will be 18.2 million tonnes.
  • World trade will be 9.4 million tonnes.
  • China’s cotton consumption will be 8.45 million tonnes.
  • Ending stocks in China will be 7.66 million tonnes, and
  • China’s cotton imports will total 1.6 million tonnes.

World Cotton Supply and Demand

  2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
  Million Tonnes Change/Month Million Tonnes Change/Month Million Tonnes Change/Month
Beginning Stocks 20.33 0.00 18.81 0.00 18.76 0.00
Production 23.08 0.00 26.75 0.00 26.16 0.04
Supply 43.41 0.00 45.57 0.00 44.92 0.04
Consumption 24.50 0.00 26.81 0.00 26.70 -0.02
Exports 8.18 0.00 9.00 0.00 9.42 0.00
Ending Stocks 18.81 0.00 18.76 0.00 18.21 0.05
 

ICAC Price Projections

Season-average Cotlook A Index (US cents per pound)
Projections Previous Month This Month
  Range Midpoint Range Midpoint
2018/19* 74-107 89 76-100 86
         
*The price projection for 2018/19 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2016/17 (estimate), in 2017/18 (estimate) and in 2018/19 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2017/18 (estimate) and 2018/19 (projection), and the average price of 2017/18.  Projection reflects 95% confidence interval.
Πηγή: ICAC

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