PUNE: The cotton export debacle has created an oversupply of Bt seeds in the market with angry farmers expected to plant less area in the coming summer season.

Companies are bracing for a price war in branded cotton seed, a far cry from the usual scenario where state governments impose a ceiling on maximum retail prices. Cotton is India's most important farm-produced industrial raw material and contributes a third to the country's agricultural GDP.

Bt cotton seeds account for 25% of the total turnover of private sector seed companies in India. "There are indications that a price war may happen as distributors know that there are ample stocks with seed companies. Seed companies may offer discounts on seeds for which there is less demand and seeds from the previous year's stocks," said the proprietor of a Maharashtra-based private Bt cotton seed company.

According to National Seed Association of India (NSAI) estimates, the country is likely to require Bt cotton seeds in the range of 4.0-4.5 crore packets of 450 g each while the total availability of seed could be approximately 5.5 crore packets.

"As against the state's anticipated requirement of 1.62 lakh packets, seed companies have conveyed us an availability of 1.76 lakh packets," said SS Adsool, director (agriculture, inputs and quality control), Maharashtra.

Cotton is likely to make way for maize in Andhra Pradesh and soya bean in Maharashtra this year. Amongst the cotton-growing states, Maharashtra farmers suffered maximum losses this year because of a fall in cotton prices and lower yields.

Cotton yields in Maharashtra declined considerably due to vagaries of weather as 98% of the crop is rain-fed.

"Compared to cotton at 3,000 per quintal, soya bean prices remained better. Soya bean cultivation is cheaper. We expect that about 25% farmers from Vidarbha might shift to soya bean," said Dinkar Patil who heads the unregistered Kapoos Utpadak Mahasangh affiliated to Raghunath Patil-led Shetakari Sangathana. The Mahasangh was in the forefront of protests demanding 2,000-crore compensation for cotton farmers.

In Andhra Pradesh too, farmers are thinking about alternatives. "We think cotton cultivation in Andhra Pradesh might decline by 4%-7% due to two reasons. Water was insufficient in the state last year and cotton prices remained low and fluctuating," said Chengal Reddy, secretary general, Consortium of Indian Farmers' Associations.

Andhra Pradesh has asked seed companies to keep seeds ready for supplies by May 1. A circular issued by the state commissioner and director of agriculture states.