India’s cotton production for the 2024–25 season is estimated at 295.30 lakh bales (170 kg each), the lowest in seven years and a major drop from last year’s 327.45 lakh bales. This reflects a decade-long downtrend, driven by stagnation in technological advancement, particularly the absence of new GM cotton approvals since 2006, and rising pest resistance. For the first time in years, India is expected to become a net importer, with imports projected at 3 million bales—surpassing exports of just 1.7 million. Global production stands at 121 million bales with tight ending stocks, keeping cotton prices firm on bullish fundamentals.
Key Highlights
# India’s 2024–25 cotton output falls to 295.30 lakh bales, a 7-year low.
# Cotton imports are expected to surpass exports for the first time in years.
# US cotton exports to India are likely to rise after import duty removal.
# Global production pegged at 121 million bales; consumption at 116.5 million.
# Cotton prices are seen bullish amid tight supply and strong global cues
Cotton prices are expected to trend bullish in the coming months, supported by tightening supply in India and firm international markets. Domestic production for 2024–25 has dropped to 295.30 lakh bales—down from 327.45 lakh bales last season—marking a seven-year low and continuing a long-term downtrend. Contributing factors include stagnation in biotechnology advancements, with no new GM cotton hybrids approved since 2006, and the increasing pest resistance in current BT varieties.
This season also marks a pivotal shift in India’s trade balance. Cotton imports are projected at 3 million bales, overtaking exports for the first time in years, which are expected at only 1.7 million bales. In contrast, India had exported as much as 13 million bales in 2011–12. The removal of the 11% import duty on raw cotton is expected to accelerate imports, particularly from the United States. In 2024 alone, the US shipped cotton worth $210.7 million to India, supporting India’s robust textile and apparel exports, valued at $10.8 billion to the US this year.
Globally, the USDA estimates world cotton output at 121 million bales and consumption at 116.5 million bales, with global ending stocks reduced to 78.3 million bales. While Brazil and Turkey are expected to raise exports, declines from Australia and Egypt may balance the flow. With ICE (NYSE:ICE) cotton futures showing firmness and textile demand gradually recovering, market sentiment remains optimistic.
Finally
With falling domestic output, rising imports, and strong global cues, cotton prices are likely to remain firm, supported by tight supply and recovering demand.
