Limited Upside for Global Cotton Prices Despite India's Ban

Limited Upside for Global Cotton Prices Despite India's Ban

A- A+
Το περιεχόμενο του άρθρου δεν είναι διαθέσιμο στη γλώσσα που έχετε επιλέξει και ως εκ τούτου το εμφανίζουμε στην αυθεντική του εκδοχή. Μπορείτε να χρησιμοποιήσετε την υπηρεσία Google Translate για να το μεταφράσετε.

This weekΆs rally in global cotton markets following IndiaΆs surprise export ban is unlikely to gain further traction, according to commodities analysts, who believe there is adequate supply in the market to meet current demand.

“You are going to see prices heading sideways. The market is adequately supplied and the demand side, even if it is increased, is coming from a very, very low base,” Dominic Schnider, Head Commodity Research, UBS Wealth Management told CNBC on Monday.

“With exports likely to pick up from Australia, itΆs not the place I want to be at the moment,” he added. Australia is currently the third largest exporter of cotton.

India, the world's second biggest producer of cotton after China, imposed the ban after exports surged to 9.4 million bales (1 bale is 170 kg) in less than six months since the crop year than began on October 1, more than the projected surplus quota of 8.4 million bales the government had set for the entire year.

Ogan Kose, Partner, Strategy Practice of Commodity Trading & Agribusiness, Accenture, agrees that prospects for the agricultural commodity are not compelling, as he doesnΆt believe the ban will be sustainable.

“If you look at the textile mills in India they are undercapitalized, how are they going to buy and absorb all that cotton if there is an export ban? So this is going to be a problem,” Kose said.

While cotton prices may see a slight upside in the near-term, his outlook for the agricultural commodity remains bleak.

Cotton futures in the U.S. jumped by their daily limit on Monday, following the announcement of the ban, but Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar's decision to challenge the ban just 24 hours after it was announced caused the rally to stall. Prices [CTK2 90.81 -0.61 (-0.67%) ] fell 0.81 cents in WednesdayΆs trade to settle at 91.42 cents per pound.

An Indian government panel is set to discuss the halt in cotton shipments on Friday, according to the countryΆs textile secretary.

newsletter

Εγγραφείτε στο καθημερινό μας newsletter