The notion that keeps coming up is that of a "Pyrrhic victory", as some consider that the current Russian military victories are, in the end, to Russia's great detriment. "One more victory like this and we will have lost the war". However, can't the same be said for Europe and the less developed countries? 

The sanctions against Russia show every day the dependence of the West, which is inexorably sinking into crisis. Ukraine will become a landlocked country that will not be able to claim to be the breadbasket of the world for many years. The war for oil and gas will allow Russia to save its economy. 

At the same time, a new front has opened up, the "war on hunger". How can we expect countries to be able to continue to feed themselves without access to foodstuffs, which have become too expensive, or to fertilisers, when more than 40% of which are under sanction? Access to these commodities will be very expensive. 

In the background, the cold war is making a comeback against a backdrop of inflation and recession. 

China and India, the two most populous countries in the world, have understood this and are buying oil in droves. India's decision, sine die, to stop wheat exports is part of this new conflict. As long as the price of rice remains "affordable", the dikes will hold... 

Although the stock markets, particularly those of technology stocks, are collapsing, the US dollar continues to soar to its highest levels, allowing the US economy to cope with inflation and the economic slowdown in better conditions. 

In this context, the cotton market is experiencing a veritable rodeo day after day, with one stampede following another in response to exogenous factors that are difficult to interpret. One variable is now unanimously recognised: cotton consumption is going to decline, under the effect of the recession. The collapse of Walmart and Target on the stock market is only the first sign of the slowdown in textile demand. 

At the same time, weather conditions should symptomatically reduce production and probably allow prices to hold up. In this respect, it is interesting to note that India initially lifted import taxes on cotton until the arrival of the new crop, then brandished the weapon of a possible ban on the export of raw cotton, which would then be reserved for local spinning. 

At this stage, demand remains stable, particularly in Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and Vietnam. It is true that the delays caused by the freight crisis do not facilitate just-in-time management of the supply chain. 

The liquidation of the July 2022 should continue to keep us firmly in the saddle and focused on the new crop, which could start to falter between slowing demand and poor weather conditions.