MAMBO Market Report
MAMBO Market Report

MAMBO Market Report

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The war in Ukraine continues to wreak havoc, while the east of the country will soon be nothing more than a field of ruins. 

Faced with this situation, the world is trying either to provide more or less direct support to one or other of the parties, while others are trying to adopt a neutrality that borders on opportunism. America is not mistaken in massively increasing its development aid because what is at stake is nothing less than a new world order. 

However, the first priority is to control the economic crisis, which could be considered asymptomatic. It is urgent to make access to money more difficult without increasing interest rates. The Western debt is huge and any increase in interest rates would cause a massive recession. 

On the other hand, it should be noted that the support to the economies has maintained employment, so all that remains is to "control" inflation due to a supply deficit. The plans to support purchasing power are remarkable in this respect, as this is the first time that inflation has been combated by direct aid to consumers. Moreover, inflation is mainly based on energy prices and the change in international balances between producers and consumers. Iran is about to sign an agreement on its nuclear industry which would allow it to export oil again. Venezuela should also be able to emerge from its isolation. There remains the ambiguous position of certain countries that buy Russian crude oil to resell refined products throughout the world. The only objective is to contain oil prices at their current levels. All consumers are called upon to reduce their consumption to influence demand. 

Gas seems to be an intractable problem. The use of coal is likely to come back to the forefront as prices remain high and nuclear power plants are ageing. But the other effect has been the spectacular rebound in nitrogen fertilisers which, after falling, have resumed their upward march. 

Virtually all agricultural commodity markets collapsed at the same time, as did the cotton market, which went through a series of "limits down". The new crop lost nearly $500 per tonne in a week, causing panic. Yet there are reasons to keep a cool head: 

  • The decline has generated an unexpected flow of demand for nearby shipments. 
  • The carryover stock at the end of the cotton year on 31 July remains low and will make the market very nervous in the weeks to come with significant volatility. 
  • The Brazilian crop, although sold, is a concern, as is the Indian crop. 
  • The increase in input prices and their lesser application should affect yields while increasing cost prices. 
  • The July settlement was turbulent and few of the players who had not priced their contracts are coming out unscathed. 
  • Demand will inexorably fall as long as inflation is not curbed, but it is difficult to estimate at this stage. 

The US dollar seems to be stabilising at around 1.05 against the euro as the ECB awaits a contained rate hike at the end of the week. 

Another crucial point remains the freight crisis where chaos still reigns and prevents one from remaining serene while creating a permanent feeling of lack. 

It would be risky to forecast equilibrium prices, but it is clear that the current downward movement is linked to the liquidation of the July 22 and to a tense climate against the backdrop of war in Europe. It would not be surprising if the market recovered in the weeks to come.

Πηγή: Mambo



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