Presidents Biden and Macron have buried happy globalization with great fanfare. Today the world is returning to protectionism and the cold war.
In this context, the role of Africa can be major. In this respect, the appointment of African personalities to head the ICAC and OPEC is undoubtedly symptomatic of a desire to count its allies on both sides.
The war in Ukraine continues unabated with no end in sight.
The recession is taking hold, inflation, although it seems to be stalling, has not yet reached its peak. Yet many products have eased or will do so in the coming weeks.
The G7 agreement to "cap" Russian oil prices will probably lead to a reduction in its production. Europe and its allies are anticipating this by preparing for power cuts this winter.
In such a context, the decision of the Chinese authorities, under pressure from public opinion, to loosen the stranglehold of the Zero Covid policy may accelerate the return of demand for all commodities.
However, it is difficult to say how long it will take for the cotton market to benefit from this improvement, as demand from spinning mills is currently weak.
Even if supply pressure is beginning to be felt, prices remain firmly anchored at historically high levels.
The current status quo is expected to last until after the end of the year holidays or even after the Chinese New Year. For the time being, the fundamentals remain very firm as no one knows how far freight rates will fall.
As expected, the dollar continues to weaken against all currencies as the US Federal Reserve's policy of raising interest rates is slowing down.
This drop could allow many operators to take a breather and regain financing capacity in dollars.
Barring any major surprises, this is the last market review of a sad year that should go down in history. We will resume our analyses in 2023 on, we hope, a much lighter outlook
Πηγή: Mambo