The large-scale terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel has caused astonishment and raised fears of a total conflagration in this part of the world. But in the current geopolitical situation, the only question that needs to be asked is who benefits from chaos? 

Hitherto accustomed to confrontations in the hushed salons of diplomats' back rooms, we must now confront the pyromaniac firefighters. Who is fanning the flames in the four corners of the world, rekindling regional conflicts and fuelling international disorder? 

America is no longer the world's policeman and will not be able to become one again until its domestic situation improves. The Republican Party is being torn apart by its extremes, depriving the House of Representatives of Speakers, while the country is fracturing in the face of what in Europe is modestly called a "migrant crisis". 

One thing is certain: the conflict is fuelling all the commodities markets, led by oil, which is soaring. If, as is to be expected, tensions rise in this part of the world, it's a safe bet that we're only just seeing the beginning of this price surge. 

The race for supplies is likely to intensify. Nearly three million tonnes of sugar have been tendered to supply the Chinese market. Tensions are likely to intensify around all food commodities in a context of uncertainty. 

One figure that went unnoticed last week was the number of jobs created in the United States, which was twice as high as expected. When full employment is achieved, it is generally accompanied by inflation. Further rate rises are therefore to be expected, which does not bode well. 

The start of the FTX trial is like the trial of the new economy by the old world, led by crypto-currencies. The verdict is likely to be final. 

It is against this backdrop that the cotton trade meetings kicked off with the AFCOT, held last week in Monaco, and will continue this week with the ICA in Singapore. To sum up the prevailing sentiment at this stage, we can simply look at the figures published above: 

• - The market remains firm, very close to 90USC / Lb 
• - The level of demand is a cause for concern and should be rapidly revised downwards, which explains why, despite a "small" US harvest, the market is still in Carry. 
• - The dollar continues to hold firm against all currencies. 
• - The A index is falling, in other words, the basis being used are falling to stimulate demand, but the results are not yet convincing.

Climatic events are having a severe impact on all harvests in the northern hemisphere, raising fears of a similar situation for future harvests in the other hemisphere. 

The situation is becoming worrying, bringing back the remnants of a past that we thought had been definitively buried in the graveyard of 20th century history.