NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Cotton futures finished with hefty losses
on Monday, caught in the downdraft of selling that pulled most other commodities
lower with the euro as Greece appeared unlikely to reach a deal to restructure
private-sector debt.
'This was definitely a risk-off kind of day, because everything was down
--metals, grains, soybeans, energy. It started in Asia, spread to Europe and
then hit here, and reflects concerns with Greece getting additional financing,'
said Sharon Johnson, senior cotton analyst at Penson Futures in Atlanta.
Benchmark March cotton on ICE Futures U.S. slid 1.46 cents, or 1.53
percent, to end at 94.15 cents per lb, and set a range between 94.11 to 96.30.
Selling was heavy. Volume in the March contract was 13,422 by the end.
Nevertheless, support was in place with a double-bottom that formed with the
Jan. 12 low, suggesting prices were unlikely to keep falling in the short term.
'Cotton got caught in this broader sell-off, but there's a lot going on this
week and next week that will determince whether prices bounce off this low,'
said Johnson.
Greece's unresolved debt restructuring knocked the euro from a six-week high
against the U.S. dollar and drove it to a 4-1/2-month low against the
safe-haven Swiss franc, along with driving most commodities lower.
Regarding factors specific to cotton, the exercise of rolling March futures
into May contracts begins in earnest this week.
According to brokers, the Rogers index fund started rolling out of March
futures and into May cotton on Monday, Deutsch Bank will start rolling on
Wednesday, and Goldman starts next Tuesday.
Johnson noted that the size of March's open interest in proportion to May's
is not as large as is typical.
'So, I don't think we have as many longs to liquidate as we typically have,
and that may work to cotton's advantage,' she added.
Next week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its monthly cotton
supply and demand report on Thursday Feb 9, the last trading day for March
cotton options comes on March 10, and on Friday, U.S. industry group National
Cotton Council will issue its annual survey of potential U.S. cotton plantings
in 2012.
'The survey by the NCC should start people focusing on the spring planting
season,' a dealer said.
Also this Friday, the U.S. Labor Department reports on employment for
January. A Reuters poll put economists average forecasts at 150,000 new jobs
created for the month.
Open interest, an indicator of investor exposure, rose to 167,490 lots as of
Jan. 27, ICE Futures U.S. data showed.
On Thursday, it stood at 166,088 lots, having posted a rise of almost 10
percent so far this year.
Friday's volume stood at 13,567 lots, off Thursday's tally of 14,758 lots,
exchange data showed.