The cotton arrival report of Pakistan Cotton Ginners' Association (PCGA) for the first fortnight of this month (1st-15th November) issued on 18th instant gives cotton data as under: The said report reports cotton arrivals equivalent of 7.969 million bales against 7.453 million bales received last year.

Thus this season, the increase is 515,669 bales =6.92 percent.

This season, Sindh is short of 1.0 million bales while Punjab is excess by 1.5 million bales.

Thus net short fall is about half a million bales.

This season, total unsold stocks are reported at 1.940 million bales while last fortnight it was 1.8 million bales.

It means, spinning mills and exporters lifted over 1.1 million bales out of total fortnight arrivals of 1.1265 million bales which many ginners doubt as trucking facilities remained suspended almost for a week.
During the last fortnight (15-30 October,11), total arrival was about 2.0 million bales and disposal was 1.5 million bales.

The objection of some ginners is that unsold stocks have been allegedly been shown lower than actual.

During the first fortnight of November, the arrival was lower in view of suspension of picking and other cotton activities due to Eid holidays.
However, in the trade circles estimate total cotton arrivals by the end of November month around 10.0 million bales and unsold stocks around 2.5 million bales.

In Sindh province, two main districts of Ghotki and Sukkur are producing more than last year while districts of Lower Sindh and Middle Sindh are producing lower than last year.

In Punjab province, all districts except Bahawalpur, are showing production higher than last year and over all it is producing cotton 32.65 percent more than last year.
Hopefully, this season's production estimate may be between 13.0 and 13.5 million bales.

Against this, our domestic cotton consumption may match with out cotton production.

The production factors such as acute energy crisis, deterioration in law and order situation, higher cost of supporting inputs, slack demand of yarn and other textile products in local as well as export markets, unstable political conditions, liquidity crunch and terrorist activities on borders and tribal areas, would constrain cotton consumption to a lower level.
Due to heavy rains and devastating floods in especially in Sindh, quality of cotton has been damaged more than quantity of cotton.

This is also evident from the recent PCGA cotton arrival report which mentioned unsold stocks as 420,752 bales (222.35 percent of total arrivals) against 330,775 bales same time last season (11.55 percent of total arrivals).
Just see the difference.

As percentage of total cottonseed arrivals, this season unsold stocks are double that of last season.

In Punjab, the percentage of unsold stocks against arrivals is 13.63 percent this season while it was 14.64 percent last year - almost same percentage of unsold stocks in Punjab.

Naturally, the quality of yarn and other textile products would be lower than last year in Sindh and so the average unit price.
In the local market, cotton prices fluctuated widely in sympathy with N Y cotton future prices in the last week.

N Y Cotton future's retiring contract December-11, touched the level of 104.96 and March 12, contract 100.88 to settle at 94.81 and 93.27 respectively.

US has been successful in selling its 9.5 million bales out of 11.3 millions in the season.

China is the main buyer of cotton and it plays key role in maintaining cotton prices.
Without China, cotton prices in foreign market could have gone very low detrimental to the interests of exporting countries.

China also bought 2.7 million statistical bales from its domestic market as Reserve Stocks.

However, US and EU countries continue to face financial crisis which is constraining not only their economic growth but that of the world too.

The Wall Street demonstration of comparatively poor people against capitalistic society is gaining momentum and may, if continued further, would damage the economies.
Cotton prices in Pakistan also fluctuated in sympathy with NY cotton futures.

In ready business, lint prices touched highest Rs 6,100 per maund but on Saturday the situation had eased down and Punjab sellers of good average cotton of Punjab style were asking Rs 5,600 but buyers were reluctant in buying at this level.

Low grade Sindh cotton was available even as low as Rs 4,200 per maund ex-gin.
The ginners are much worried on accumulation of stocks and the prices may be under selling pressure because business and industrial conditions in Pakistan do not appear conducive to better performance of textile sector.

There are reports that some of the entrepreneurs have already relocated their textile/garment industries in countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Malaysia and South Africa which are offering better conditions while some others are planning relocation of their industries.
It is a fact that there has been no expansion and development in textile sector in the last few years and business and industry prospects appear poor in future.

For destroying the industry, energy crisis plays main role and we fear our textile industry may be crippled to become a liability instead of an asset for the country.