If cotton growers in Pakistan were turning away from cotton in droves, no one could reasonably blame them. The countryΆs recent crops have been devastated by a crippling combination of inclement weather and pest outbreaks, most notably whitefly.

Despite a decrease in plantings, Pakistan should post a major increase in year-over-year fiber production.

Nonetheless, even as the countryΆs area dedicated to cotton drops to its lowest point in decades, overall production is expected to increase nearly 20% year over year. Expectations for both higher prices and higher yields are the reasons USDA cited when it raised its expectations for PakistanΆs crop, which is now predicted to reach about 8.3 million bales.

ItΆs an excellent example of just how interconnected cotton production is. When making their crop decisions, prices were lower than they are today, so many farmers opted to plant something other than cotton, leading to a decrease in planted area. But prices continued to climb, so those farmers who had settled on cotton were encouraged to invest in better inputs, like fertilizers and pesticides. That, in turn, is driving higher yields – more than 1.5 bales per acre – with a net result of greater production despite the smaller planted area.