It’s not just cotton. All commodities – and the U.S. stock market as well – are reeling from news of a new virus strain. Should growers be concerned? Yes. Will prices recover? Likely, but when and by how much? And will the market fall further before a recovery?
March futures near $1.16, with a strong basis and good fiber quality premiums here in the Southeast, had many growers looking at $1.20. But fears surfaced right after Thanksgiving with the market losing 4 cents. It was down a bit further yesterday (Nov. 29) and is currently down limit another 5 cents today (Nov. 30). March is currently locked at roughly $1.06½.
Cotton may be more sensitive and vulnerable in this situation than other commodities because much of the run-up in price was due to speculative buying and so much hope and optimism has been built up in World use/demand. Cotton is vulnerable to price decline if speculative interests decide to bail out and if this new variant causes demand uncertainty/loss and/or further supply chain problems.
This situation puts the grower in a tough spot. You hate to sell into a down market and hope price will recover, but you certainly don’t want price to drop even more. Many/most growers had a good portion of their crop already priced and were using the strong harvesttime rally to price further.
The drop in price is especially bad timing. Growers were hoping price would stay high while harvest is completed, and the cotton is ginned and classed. Now, with prices in a nosedive, many growers must decide if they’re going to go ahead and contract to protect from price falling further, or wait and hope price recovers but risk price going even lower? Is using Options a way to provide protection?
These answers depend partly on how far along the grower already is on pricing. Some growers are taking no chances and contracting most or a good portion of remaining production. Others are contracting some but leaving some yet unpriced. Some are waiting and hoping for prices to recover. There is no perfect solution. Decisions also depend on how much risk the grower is willing to take.
The market is down about 10%, and there are reasons to be concerned. The panic that growers are feeling is valid. These fears are compounded by the timing – that growers feel they must either contract or wait to finish harvest, ginning, and classing to recap the remaining crop.
Let me also quickly say, however, that these fears and market uncertainty have yet to be validated. The market is acting largely on emotion. Facts have yet to be realized. Today proves the market is certainly willing to take away more in price. But it is also possible that reality may give some of the loss back.
Prices (March futures) should have support at around $1.05. But, under the circumstances, that may or may not hold. Any recovery may now face a bit of a hurdle at $1.12 to $1.15. Fresh news – especially if it’s good for price – in the way of exports, progress and harvest, weather, and/or demand will help refocus the market on other things.
Dr. Don Shurley is professor emeritus in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics at the University of Georgia, Tifton.
Πηγή: Cotton Grower