The week ending Friday, May 22 saw ICE cotton futures step higher, then stumble and slide lower (see Jul’26 chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). The nearby Jul’26 contract settled down 3.62 cents on Thursday and another half cent on Friday, ending the week at 77.42 cents per pound.  Chinese cotton prices were lower-then-higher across the week ending May 21, while the A-Index of world cotton prices was mixed.

Other ag futures markets followed various paths for the week ending May 21.  CBOT corn and soybeans both rose, peaked, and trended lower.  KC wheat followed a more steady uptrend across the week. ICE WTI stair-stepped higher through Thursday while the U.S. dollar index followed more of a large sideways gyration.

Cotton-focused news this week included unspectacular U.S. export net sales as of May 14 (which were still an improvement over the prior weeks’ seasonal low).  Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments continued just below USDA’s export target level. Reported demand indicators included inactive to active spot trading, very light to good demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region.

Through Thursday, May 21, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were mixed, i.e., either lower (Friday and Monday) and  higher (Tuesday and Wednesday) compared to the previous day. The regular Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for May 19) saw mixed speculative positioning that was dominated by long liquidation. Specifically, there were 13,455 fewer (liquidated) hedge fund longs, week over week.  This outweighed a 3,443 reduction in (covered) hedge fund shorts compared to last week.  Lastly, the index fund net long position expanded 5,101 contracts, week over week.

The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market, but one that is perhaps lifting. The rising certified stock levels in early 2026, and again in April, could reflect weak commercial demand for U.S. cotton. It remains true that unfixed call sales (representing potential/eventual futures buying by mills) have been at a relatively low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side. But more recently, unfixed call sales have been stabilizing/rising (see red line in the chart below).  This is bringing them more into balance with unfixed call purchases, and contributing to futures buying.

For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.