According to the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress Report, 20 percent of the nation’s cotton crop has been planted, an 8-point increase from the week prior, which is on par with the five-year average.

In its March Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA is estimating there will be 13.5 million acres of cotton, an increase of 7 percent.

When it comes to trade, John Payne, publisher of This Week In Grains And Oilseeds newsletter, two storylines are dominating the trade on two sides of the curve.

The front part of the curve, he told AgDay host Clinton Griffiths, is “fantastic” export demand.

“We’re about 113 percent ahead of export pace so we’re going to see the USDA increase demand in the coming WASDE reports,” said Payne.

The other factor is the dry weather in western Texas.

“If it rains, I think it will break, but at this point, they’re so far behind in moisture that it’s going to take a good storm to do it,” he said. “A lot of those guys haven’t had rain since Halloween.”