U.S. cotton ends at 150-yr top, $2 cotton in sight

U.S. cotton ends at 150-yr top, $2 cotton in sight

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NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) - U.S. cotton futures ended
Wednesday at a 150-year high on investment fund and speculative
buying in heavy volume with momentum expected to push prices
higher in the days ahead, analysts said.

The runaway cotton market is the best performing commodity
in the Reuters-Jefferies commodity index, having risen 21
percent year to date.

(Graphic: http://link.reuters.com/kew48n)

Last year, cotton was also the top performer in the
commodity index as it rallied 90 percent.

The key March cotton contract on ICE Futures U.S.
increased 5.29 cents or by 3.0 percent to conclude at $1.8058
per lb, a record settlement close for the market.

The contract traded from $1.7367 to $1.8229, a fresh record
intra-day mark.

Total volume hit some 44,100 lots, more than double the
30-day norm, Thomson Reuters preliminary data showed.

'I think it is spec-related buying,' said Sharon Johnson,
senior cotton analyst with brokerage Penson Futures in Atlanta,
Georgia.

She said cotton may have seen some high-frequency dealings
from algorithmic traders who rapidly go in and out of the
market, making money on fractional differences in contracts
such as cotton.

Lou Barbera, cotton analyst at brokers VIP Commodities,
said part of the push in the market also came from panic mill
buying.

He said the momentum of the rally in cotton could
eventually see the July cotton contract hit the psychological
$2 per lb level in the months ahead.

Analysts said the market barely reacted to the U.S.
Agriculture Department's monthly supply/demand report since
there were no major changes in the data.

The market will now turn its attention to the USDA's weekly
export sales report on Thursday to see if demand is being
affected by the rally in the market.

Once the report is done, the market will be looking toward
next month's USDA potential plantings report on March 31 to see
if high cotton prices spurred more cotton sowings in 2011.

Industry group the National Cotton Council of America said
U.S. 2011 cotton plantings will likely reach 12.5 million
acres. Most analysts feel the number is much higher because the
NCC survey was conducted before the current rally in the cotton
market.

A Reuters survey at the Beltwide Cotton conference this
month had forecast U.S. 2011 cotton plantings from 12.48
million to 12.53 million acres, a 5-year high and an increase
of around 15 percent from last year's cotton sowings of 11.04
million acres.

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