Retail sales in the US rose in October as many consumers began holiday shopping early to avoid any shortages amid pandemic-driven supply chain disruptions that are dominating businesses and shoppers this holiday season, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said. Clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 0.7 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 22.7 per cent unadjusted year-over-year.

Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.4 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 9.6 per cent unadjusted year-over-year, while online and other non-store sales were up 4 per cent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 7.4 per cent unadjusted year-over-year.

The US Census Bureau said overall retail sales in October were up 1.7 per cent seasonally adjusted from September and up 16.3 per cent year-over-year. That compares with increases of 0.8 per cent month-over-month and 14.3 per cent year-over-year in September. Despite occasional month-over-month declines, sales have grown year-over-year every month since June 2020, according to Census data.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – showed October was up 1.7 per cent seasonally adjusted from September and up 10.8 per cent unadjusted year-over-year. That compared with increases of 0.4 per cent month-over-month and 10.9 per cent year-over-year in September. NRF’s numbers were up 11.3 per cent unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average.

October’s results come as NRF is forecasting another record-setting holiday season, with sales forecast to grow between 8.5 per cent and 10.5 per cent over 2020. While the NRF forecast defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31, a record 49 per cent of consumers surveyed this fall planned to begin their holiday shopping before November, with 36 per cent doing so to avoid missing out on key holiday items.

For the first 10 months of the year, sales as calculated by NRF were up 14.1 per cent over the same period in 2020. That is consistent with NRF’s forecast that retail sales for the full year should grow between 10.5 and 13.5 per cent over 2020 to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.

“Despite significant challenges including supply chain issues, labour shortages, rising inflation and OSHA’s impending employer vaccine mandate, retailers are continuing to safely serve consumers online and in stores. Today’s numbers show that consumers are getting a jump on their holiday shopping,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement.