Among the major crops, cotton faces some of the most persistent structural challenges.

“You know, we do look at the cotton complex as something that is facing sustained headwinds,” Benavidez says.

He acknowledges recent gains in net cash farm income for cotton producers, attributing part of that improvement to policy support. But globally, competition remains intense.

“There’s a lot of increased production in Brazil that is competing with our exports from the United States,” he says. “They have, in some cases, a lower cost of production than our producers here in the United States.”

Long-term consumption trends also weigh on the sector, as he notes the long-term trend toward more synthetic fiber and flat demand for cotton fibers is a headwind the cotton industry is going to face long term.

“The cotton complex is one that I certainly do think that I’ll pay a lot of attention to this year,” he says.